Monday March 02, 2009

Singapore GDP contracted annualized 16.4% in Q4 2008 on worsening recession

This article belongs to the Singapore recession watch story arc.

channelnewsasia.com :

Singapore's economy, already in recession, shrank 4.2% in the fourth quarter of 2008 from a year earlier, with overall annual growth coming in at 1.1%, the government said. The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said it was maintaining its 2009 forecast of a shrinkage in gross domestic product (GDP) of between 2.0 and 5.0 percent. On a seasonally adjusted annualised quarter-on-quarter basis, Singapore GDP declined 16.4% in Q4 2008.

The manufacturing sector declined by 10.7% in Q4 2008. Growth in the construction sector slowed to 18.5%, from 26.0% in the third quarter, weighed down by a slowdown in industrial building activity and the deferment of several private sector projects. The service industries contracted by 1.3%. MTI said the sharp decline in world trade towards the end of 2008 also resulted in contractions in the wholesale and retail sector (-5.3%) and the transport and storage sector (-2.4%).

- Remember what I said back then when this recession was portrayed as some kind of mere technicality? Among other things, I wrote : "If this goes on, and all indications are that it will, the "technical recession" will become a real one". And this has certainly turned out to be much more than a "technical recession".

Right now the only sectors holding things up seem to be the construction and service sectors. Guess what happens when construction activities of the casinos (excuse me, "integrated resorts") start to wind down as they near completion - and here's hoping that they do complete especially the one by Las Vegas Sands whose stock has plunged from $138.93 in Oct 2007 down to $2.28 at this point, a 98.36% fall. As for the service sectors, give it a few more months for the lag effect to hit home - literally.

Now all we have to do is to wait for this "seasonally-adjusted", "annualized", double-digit GDP contraction to morph into a "non-seasonally-adjusted", "year-on-year", double-digit GDP contraction. This is not just another recession.

See also :

1. Singapore GDP contracted 6.8% annualized in Q3 2008, heads deeper into recession
2. Singapore recession deepens as NODX (non-oil domestic exports) fall 20.8% in Dec 2008
3. Singapore, Taiwan GDP may shrink 10-11% in 2009 : CLSA
4. Not just another recession : Singapore NODX exports collapse 34.8% in Jan 2009 in largest fall ever

(2009-03-02 18:30:43 SGT) [Biz] Permalink

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