Monday February 09, 2009

American unemployment rate U-6 hits 15.4%, figures fit for Second Great Depression

bls.gov :

The U.S. unemployment rate was recently announced to have hit 7.6% with 598,000 job losses in Jan 2009. But wait. That was the headline number, the one that the press usually picks up on : the seasonally-adjusted U-3 figure. If you think that's bad, you should take a look at the non-seasonally-adjusted U-6 figure, which includes, in their own words : "Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers". That would be a more accurate figure since those part-timers and temp-ers would rather have a "real" job - if only they could find one.

So, in line with what I said earlier about a 10% unemployment rate being a possible benchmark for a Second Great Depression scenario, if you look at the U-6 figure for the US, it's already arrived. It shouldn't be that much of a surprise as the BIS had been talking about it since Jul 2007. Give it half a year or so, and if things do not significantly turn around by then, even the headline unemployment figure could go into double-digit territory. That would be something.

See also :

1. The Second Great Depression
2. Wave of job cuts across corporate America, mass layoffs well beyond Wall Street
3. Baltic Dry Index falls 93% as shipping rates plunge, signalling global economic collapse
4. Happy New Year 2009 : The Year of Collapse

(2009-02-09 14:11:06 SGT) [Biz] Permalink

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