Singapore recession deepens as NODX (non-oil domestic exports) fall 20.8% in Dec 2008

This article belongs to the Singapore recession watch story arc.

bloomberg.com :

Singapore's exports fell the most since early 2002 in Dec 2008 as a deepening slump in global economies pared demand for electronics and pharmaceuticals. Non-oil domestic exports [NODX] dropped 20.8% from a year earlier, after contracting 17.5% in Nov 2008. Singapore's economy is in a recession, forcing manufacturers to fire workers and prompting the government to move forward its 2009 budget announcement to speed up its response to the crisis. Meanwhile, China's exports fell the most in almost a decade in December, while Taiwan's overseas shipments slumped by a record 41.9% in the same period. Singapore's electronics shipments slipped 25.4% in Dec 2008 from a year earlier, the 23rd consecutive drop. Sales of electronics products by companies including Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing were worth S$4.18 billion ($2.8 billion) last month. Creative Technology on 2 Jan 2009 said it eliminated 2,700 jobs or almost half its workforce after demand for its music players tumbled. Non-electronics shipments, which include petrochemicals and pharmaceuticals, fell 17.4%. Pharmaceutical shipments plunged 51.1%.

channelnewsasia.com :

Singapore's key exports fell more than expected in December from a year ago, as recession-hit US and European consumers bought fewer goods from the city-state, the government said. Non-oil domestic exports tumbled 20.8%. It was the 8th straight month of contraction for the NODX, a closely watched barometer of the health of Singapore's open, trade-driven economy. Exports to all of Singapore's top 10 markets declined, with the exception of Japan. Exports to the European Union fell 34% while those to neighbouring Malaysia dropped 26%. Shipments to the United States fell 24%. Standard Chartered economist Alvin Liew said: "This is likely to be the most painful year in terms of external demand collapsing." Singapore became the first Asian economy to fall into recession in the third quarter of last year [2008].

- So I am backblogging again upon return from my trip. But from what I recall, this item seemed to give our governing body a heck of a shock. Non-oil domestic exports or NODX as it is commonly called, is a leading indicator of economic activity. In other words, what NODX does first, GDP usually follows later. Imagine what a GDP contraction of 10-20% would do to the country. In fact that is precisely what seems to be going on, as 2008 Q4 GDP figures have collapsed to -17% on an annualized basis.

Now we have local economists starting to yell stuff about "external demand collapsing". To their credit, the international peakoiler community has been yelling collapse for years. Mostly the doomers. Well. Especially the doomers. But did anyone ever listen to the doomer faction? Over on this end, I have been mumbling about it on one or two occasions. The multi-billion-dollar question that remains is, since we are all talking collapse here (of demand, exports, GDP growth, and many other indicators), what's next?

Toyota to launch pure electric car based on FT-EV concept in US by 2012

tech.yahoo.com :

Toyota said it would launch an all-electric car for city commuting by 2012 in the United States as part of its plan to speed up the introduction of green cars as its global sales falter. The FT-EV concept made its debut at the North American International Auto Show. The FT-EV concept shares a platform with the tiny iQ urban commuter car, which runs on a gasoline engine and emits just 99 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer. Toyota said the concept car is targeted at the urban dweller driving up to 50 miles between home and work, for instance.

Toyota would join rivals General Motors and Nissan in the race to grab the lead in the zero-emission car segment. But Toyota said it still considered gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles its long-term core powertrain technology. With an aim of selling 1 million hybrids annually soon after 2010, Toyota will launch as many as 10 new hybrid models by then in various markets. The 2010 Toyota Prius and the Lexus HS250h, to debut in Detroit, are part of that effort, it said. General Motors, which Toyota passed in recent years to become the top global automaker by sales, has said it will launch its Chevrolet Volt electric car in the United States in late 2010.

- Compared to the Tesla Roadster, this one obviously belongs in a slightly different market segment. Whereas Tesla has chosen to go straight to the super high end of things, Toyota's entry looks to be aiming for the "slightly higher than electric golf cart" category. That's not such a bad thing, actually. There's probably a market for small, affordable electric vehicles for zipping about the city or for relatively short commutes. How big that market is going to be in 2012 will depend on the movement of crude oil prices, and the state of the economy by then.

Back from Malacca trip for CNY 2009

Hi everyone. Just came back from a trip to the historic town of Malacca, Malaysia for the Chinese New Year period. Above is a group photo of (part of) the big Sim family clan (wife's side). Every year, we're part of the Singapore-Malaysia CNY exodus, much smaller in scale compared to the China phenomenon.

Regular blogging shall resume shortly.