NYMEX crude oil falls to $100.10 on US dollar rally

Oil prices tumbled on Thursday [11 Sep 2008] as the dollar rallied and demand worries outweighed a powerful Hurricane Ike barrelling through the rig-dotted Gulf of Mexico. NYMEX crude oil fell to $100.10 per barrel in intraday trade in New York, approaching the $100 threshold last crossed on April 1. In London, Brent North Sea crude for Oct 2008 delivery settled at $97.64, the lowest level since March 5. The dollar strengthened again against the euro, which fell below $1.39 for the first time in a year amid growing recession fears in the eurozone. Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy (DoE) lowered its forecasts for 2009 global crude oil demand.

- The fall in the NYMEX crude oil price to the psychologically important $100 support level coincided with the US Dollar Index, USDX, breaking above crucial 80 resistance. USDX watchers will well remember the fateful day when the USDX broke through this 22-year support level on the downside, which then helped to drive a huge commodities rally.

In recent weeks the opposite has been happening as the USDX reversed direction and rocketed off to break in rapid succession the resistance levels of 72, 74, 76, 78 and now 80. In an exact mirror-image fashion, the anti-dollar elements including gold, oil and other major commodities proceeded to fall off the cliff.

I made a call recently for a reversal of this trend, with 3 major factors working toward the bullish cause : the OPEC production cut of 520,000 barrels per day, the imminent lifting of the Beijing Olympics shutdown, and the USDX resistance level of 80 as mentioned above. Already, USDX is pulling back from the 80 level and is now back to around 79.4 at the moment. Could this be *it*? Was $100.10 the bottom? Has OPEC really successfully defended $100 oil? We shall see.

Toyota plans electric car and 2010 Toyota Prius plugin hybrid with lithium-ion

bloomberg.com :

Toyota is developing an electric car and will speed up testing of Toyota Prius PHEV plug-in hybrids with lithium-ion batteries, an advance over the nickel-metal hydride (Ni-MH) versions in existing hybrids. The all-electric car, likely to be a small, urban commuter vehicle, will be mass-produced in early 2010. Tests of rechargeable Priuses were moved up to late 2009 from 2010. Toyota estimates the new plug-ins will be able to travel 10 miles (16 km) on a charge, and is targeting commercial sales for late 2010, the same debut GM expects for the Chevrolet Volt.

The shift reflects rising demand for fuel-efficient cars amid record oil prices. Toyota also moved to expand sales of current hybrids. Subsidiary Panasonic EV Energy would add capacity to make nickel-metal packs for 1 million cars by 2010, a threefold increase over last year. The annnouncement follows Nissan's plan to lease small numbers of electric vehicles in the US by 2010 capable of traveling 100 miles on a charge. Mitsubishi also intends to test all-electric iMiEV minicars in California later this year and sell them in Japan.

- With the spate of recent announcements, including the one from Honda, it looks like the 2010/2011 model year is shaping up to be the era of the lithium-ion hybrids. For a while it looked like the Toyota Prius Li-Ion PHEV would not make it, being first delayed, and then it was announced that they would release it with the more conventional Ni-MH batteries first, and now they are back to confirming a 2010 launch with lithium-ion. Nothing like a bit of competition to get things going along.

The electric car seems to be emerging as well. After a false start some years back (inspiring the excellent documentary "Who Killed the Electric Car?"), the EV market was left for dead and golf carts seemed to have the market all to themselves until the Tesla Roadster came onto the scene, which also inspired other smaller makers like Zap. Now that we have the bigger players like Toyota, Nissan and Mitsubishi making their grand entrance, the EV market is poised for take-off.

All these developments would not be possible without the recent advancements in battery technology, of course. With billions of dollars already being committed to advanced battery manufacturing, the future of lithium-ion hybrids and electric vehicles looks bright.

(2008-09-12 11:27:51 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

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