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Wednesday May 14, 2008

Developing countries eye nuclear power: report

news.yahoo.com :

More than 40 developing countries have recently approached United Nations officials to express interest in starting nuclear power programs, the Washington Post reported on Monday [12 May 2008]. The interest among developing countries ranging from the Gulf to Latin America is a concern to proliferation experts, who say it could provide the building blocks for nuclear arsenals in some of the countries. The newspaper said much of the interest in nuclear power is driven by economic considerations including the high cost of fossil fuels. However, some Middle Eastern countries with access to large stocks of oil or natural gas, such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, appear to be investing in nuclear power partly because of concerns about a future regional arms race, the Post said.

- The part about nuclear proliferation fears is pretty much bogus. You only need 4% enriched uranium to power a typical nuclear fission reactor. Sure, anyone who is going beyond that is probably up to no good, and anyone who refuses to let others inspect their facilities is also probably up to no good. And with the current spy satellite technology, there really aren't many places to hide a secret nuclear weapons making facility.

As for the Arabs, the point is not that they are supposed to have access to "large stocks of oil or natural gas". The point is that they know these resources do not last forever, and they are making conscientious plans to think ahead for the future by planning to build nuclear power stations. And furthermore, with the prices of crude oil and natural gas on the rise, you can't really fault them for trying to build nuclear power plants so that they can export more of their precious fossil fuel products for more money, can you?

How about we look at China. They will be building 20 to 30 new nuclear power plants over the next decade or so. Is anyone in their right mind going to seriously yell that the Chinese are building these nuclear power plants in order to build more nuclear weapons? Now that's a crazy thought. These two technologies, nuclear weaponry and nuclear power plants, actually have little in common besides the fact that both use uranium. The anti-nuclear faction wants you to believe otherwise. They want you to associate nuclear power plants with "kaboom". They have convinced many people around me, and now all they can think of when "nuclear" is brought up is "kaboom". The anti-nuclear faction would rather you clamour for more coal plants, which actually release a lot more radiation into the air (via coal ash) than operating nuclear plants do.

But I am picking a side and I am sticking to it. I am putting sizeable amounts of money into nuclear-related companies, mining, infrastructure, utilities, I am buying via my private investment fund into the same area, and I am also buying into clean energy companies as well. But I am putting exactly zero dollars into coal-related companies. And that's how I am playing the game.

(2008-05-14 17:53:03 SGT) [Biz] Permalink

Crude oil hits $126.98, extending record run to 7 days in a row

This article belongs to the NYMEX crude oil price records story arc.

money.ninemsn.com.au :

Crude oil came within touching distance of $127 a barrel on Tuesday [13 May 2008], extending its record-breaking run for a seventh session, while US petrol and heating oil prices also climbed to new highs. NYMEX June West Texas Intermediate hit a record $126.98.

news.bbc.co.uk :

Oil prices have hit a record just shy of $127 a barrel after Iran said it was studying a plan to cut crude output. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said a proposal to reduce Iran's crude output was being reviewed by experts. The report sent US light, sweet crude to a new high of $126.98. Analysts doubted whether Iran would actually cut output but the report sent jitters through oil trading floors. The commodity could hit $200 within the next six months.

A number of factors have combined to push oil on its recent record-breaking run. There have been supply disruptions in Iraq, Nigeria and the UK's North Sea, while there has also been strong underlying demand from China, which is buying crude to fuel its economic boom. At the same time, concerns about the US economy and a weak US dollar have made oil a more attractive investment.

- Whoa, so much for the "due for a correction" part that the so-called analysts have been saying only yesterday. Like I said, "it would be showing incredible strength, however, if it stays persistently above $120." And there you are, crude oil *is* showing incredible strength, snapping back from what seemed like an inevitable downward correction towards the $120 support level. All that it took was for Iran to wade onto the scene and start talking about *reducing* their oil output. This at a time when Bush & Co has been practically leaning on the Saudi's on *increasing* their oil output.

But what else would you have expected from the Iranians, who have been saying just 3 weeks earlier that oil was too cheap at $115 : Even at 115 dollars a barrel, oil is priced too low, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in comments published on Saturday [19 Apr 2008] adding that the commodity "should find its real value". "Oil at 115 dollars a barrel in today's market is a deceiving figure, oil is a strategic commodity and should find its real value," the state broadcaster's website quoted Ahmadinejad as saying.

You know, I rather suspect that their target for "real value" is somewhere north of $300 per barrel. Not that I mind personally, in the long run, being long oil-related equities and all, but I have to say for now, WOULD YOU PEOPLE GIVE US A DAMNED BREAK?!!! Man! This is getting to be an impossible market to get into, with crude oil breaking records 5, and then 6, and now 7 trading days in a row and all. And this is not the first 7-day run either, we've already had another 7-day run back in mid-March. Yes, I *am* keeping track. And no, I am *not* going to buy into a market that is setting records every single day. I might be bullish on oil but I'm not that crazy as to be buying into a vertical 90-degree exponential take-off.

Alright, stay calm. Watch the technicals. Support levels are at $120, $110, $100 and $90 (yes I know - ha, ha). Resistance levels are at $150, $180, $200, $300 and over $400. Take your pick, but I will be buying in at support.