Asian stocks fall (off the cliff) on global slowdown concern

Asian stocks fell on concern the U.S. will enter a recession and slow global growth. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped to its lowest since October 2005, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index plunged the most since the September 2001 attacks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 3.6% to 141.57 at 5:11 p.m. in Tokyo, heading for its lowest close since Aug. 17. The measure is entering its fourth week of losses, and has declined 18% since its Nov. 1 record.

- The stock market action today could be mildly described as "falling off the cliff". Singapore's STI Straits Times Index went into a free-fall, dropping 187.10 points to break below the 3000 level, and closed at 2917.15. They sure chose a hell of a time to revamp the index. Probably couldn't have picked a worse time.

Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei dropped 535 points, and China's Shanghai SSE index fell 266 points to close at 4914.435, below the 5000 level and way below the heady heights of 6,124.04 on 16 Oct 2007 (which isn't very long ago). So much for the hypothesis that "China won't drop before the 2008 Olympics". It can, and it did. This is January 2008. The Olympics are in August 2008.

And in terms of number of points dropped, India's Sensex takes the gold medal, dropping by 1408 points to close at 17,605.35. Whatever happened to 21,000? 20,000? 19,000? Umm ... 18,000? It wasn't too long ago, 9 Jan 2008 to be exact, when some of those who had a vested interest in the Indian market were crowing about 21,113.13. That's a drop of 16%, by the way.

(2008-01-21 18:58:54 SGT) [Biz] Permalink

Public transport : Miles to go before Singapore's world-class

businesstimes.com.sg :

Singapore ranks poorly among global cities for the reach of its public transport system, according to a recent comparative study of 50 cities by Ooi Giok Ling from the National Institute of Education. The Republic ranked 31st in terms of total length of public transportation lines per 1,000 people. The mediocre ranking is not a function of the country's small size, said Kog Yue Chong, adjunct professor at the National University of Singapore, who presented Prof Ooi's findings on her behalf at a public seminar on Wednesday [16 Jan 2008]. Singapore has just 0.1 km of subway track per square kilometre, compared with 0.4 km for Hong Kong, 1 km for London, and 4 km for Paris, said Dr Kog. 'We still have a very long way to go in terms of MRT transport. To reduce the car population, we need very good public transport,' he said.

Out of the 50 cities, Singapore also ranked 37th in terms of total length of reserved public transportation routes per thousand people. Singapore ranked 20th in terms of total number of public transport vehicles per million people. It also ranked 44th in terms of daily trips made by foot per person, and 8th in terms of daily trips made on public transport per person.

He also said Singapore's garden city concept does little for nature and biodiversity - a view echoed by many environmentalists here. Instead, planners ought to think about urban biodiversity. Part of this, ironically, is to consider packing more people into a smaller area. Cities should consider having higher population density, rather than expanding the urban area, said Dr Kog. Singapore's density versus that of other cities is 'actually not high', even though Singapore's density is high on a country-wide basis, he said.

- This ground-breaking study should provide ample ammunition for those who are keenly aware that we are nowhere near "world-class" in our public transport, as was trumpeted earlier in the media. 31st out of 50, 37th out of 50. This is way below average. We are not "world-class". Never have been.

There has been this recent flurry about revamping the bus system. Bus, bus, bus. Practically the entire speech was about the buses. More buses plying more frequently burning more dirty diesel? No, thank you. We need more rail. More railway tracks and train services to more destinations. We should learn from the French, who are going to run their trains and then planes on electricity. We should have more rail running on electricity, and, like the French, the electricity should come from nuclear power plants.

(2008-01-21 18:22:07 SGT) [Energy] Permalink Comments [2]

Singapore exports lurch to worst showing in five years - economists surprised (again)

businesstimes.com.sg :

Even the economists were caught off-guard. They had expected Singapore's key non-oil domestic exports (NODX) in December to grow at a healthy clip, compared to a year ago. Instead, they fell 4.5% on the heels of a 3.4% drop in November. This unexpected slowdown meant that, for the year as a whole, NODX put on its worst showing in five years. Last year's disappointing export performance came despite a robust growth in the overall economy, which put on 7.5% gains.

Economists in the private sector, meanwhile, feel that the looming recession in the United States could hit Asian exports. Poor electronics exports was a key reason for the NODX's poor performance last year. Shipments fell each month since February as a global inventory glut pushed down prices of memory chips and microprocessors. For the year, electronic exports fell 9.2% from 2006.

- This is looking really ugly. This phrase about the so-called economists being "caught off-guard" is being repeated in the media so often it is starting to sound like a cliche. NODX shrinking, GDP shrinking, inflation hitting 25-year record highs, retail sales falling off a cliff. All of these are surprising the economists. Some choice quotes :

a. Singapore's mainstay exports fell unexpectedly as the electronics sector remained weak ...
b. Singapore's economy unexpectedly contracted as factory output slowed ...
c. Singapore's retail sales unexpectedly declined ...
d. Singapore's consumer prices rose faster-than-expected ...

There could be a lot more "surprises" coming up in the future ...

(2008-01-21 17:57:11 SGT) [Biz] Permalink

Stocks plunge, 2007 gains wiped out

biz.yahoo.com :

Wall Street extended its 2008 plunge Thursday [17 Jan 2008], sending the Dow Jones industrials down 306 points and to their lowest level since last March after a regional Federal Reserve report showed a sharp and unexpected decline in manufacturing activity. The Dow lost nearly 2.5%, giving the index its worst three-day percentage decline since October 2002. The Standard & Poor's 500, the index closely watched by market professionals, fell nearly 3% Thursday. The Dow, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite index have now given back all of the gains they achieved in 2007.

bloomberg.com :

U.S. stocks posted the steepest weekly drop since July 2002 after lower-than-estimated home construction, retail sales and manufacturing reinforced speculation that the economy is entering a recession. Citigroup, the largest U.S. bank by assets, plunged 14% to $24.45, the lowest since February 1999, after reporting the biggest loss in its 196-year history. Home construction fell 14% in December, concluding the worst year for the industry since 1980. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined 5.4% this week to 1,325.19, the lowest level since September 2006. The benchmark for U.S. equities has tumbled 9.8% this year, its worst-ever start.

- Okay, so I was a little bit early when I was talking about a wipe-out on all 2007 stock gains back on 6 August 2007. Let's see what the scoreboard looks like now :

As you can see, these major stock indexes have had all their 2007 gains completely wiped out : all 3 major US indexes the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, as well as Japan's Nikkei index, Canada's TSX, and Australia's ASX.

From the list, only India's SENSEX and the China SSE indexes are still flying high, though not as high as they were. India is no longer above the 20,000 level and China hasn't quite seen the 6000 level for a while and, in fact, is flirting with the 5000 level.

As for Singapore's STI Straits Times Index, at the point of writing, which is just after the market re-opened after lunch-time on Mon 21 Jan 2008, it is now at 3017.65, having dropped 86 points. Singapore's STI is wiped out too.

2008 is really going to be interesting. Stock markets getting wiped out within the first 3 weeks of trading, a looming recession and yet growing inflation at the same time, $100 oil on the first trading day of the year, and gold hitting $900 and reportedly on its way to $1000 and beyond.

In fact, one of the few ways that you could have stayed in positive territory this year was to be in gold and gold-related investments. Go for the gold. As a certain notable member of the resource investing community likes to say, you've got to be in it to win it.

This is really, really going to be a fun ride. Stay tuned.

See also :

1. How far the fall?

(2008-01-21 14:33:55 SGT) [Biz] Permalink

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