Friday March 30, 2007

Green business strategy

I was talking to shooperman about those new Punggol Treetops "eco" flats, and how the prices are so much higher than "conventional" flats, at $370-380K for a 5-room, when normally the usual price would have been, say, $200-250K in the Sengkang/Punggol area. That's a $130-170K, or 50-80% "green premium". It's unusually high.

And what does that premium get you - a bit more greenery, recycling rubbish chute, some rainwater collection, a limited set of solar panels for corridor lighting at night (which implies batteries, which implies maintenance costs), and motion sensors in the carpark. Is that worth $100+K huh? Per unit? Hmm. I don't know.

I said that you *could* look at it as some kind of reverse psychology thing. "Green costs more", so developers rush to build more of these, so that they can earn a bigger, fatter cut. The consumers clamour to live in the more pricey green buildings so as, well, not really to "save the earth", but to be "cool" and "in it".

Meanwhile, these early adopters sponsor the next generation of more useful green technology. It's happening in the IT world. I mean, people buy the latest and fastest AMD64x2, C2D, etc. not to save energy, right? Who's thinking about the green angle when shopping?

This reminds me of a story a Chinese colleague once told me. This fella in Beijing was trying to sell a batch of 100 shirts at RMB5 each. He waits one day, nobody buys. The next day, he changes the sign to say "luxury shirts", ups the price to RMB200, and he sells the whole lot in less than half a day. I forgot the exact numbers, it's something along these lines.

Question : "Would you buy green if you know it will cost you more?"
Consumers : "Hmmm, nahhhh"

Question : "What if it's the ultimate in luxury and it will raise your social status, etc."
Consumers : "Lemme at it!!!"

Case in point : the Lexus RX400h, it's a darn SUV, but people get excited about it because it's the ultimate top end in performance of its class, and oh, by the way it's a hybrid.

The Tesla Roadster - it beats Ferrari's with its 0-100 in 4 sec performance, it costs US$100K and, oh, by the way, it's electric.

It's something about the social animal angle.

So a viable "green business" strategy might be to target the affluent consumers who can actually "afford green", as opposed to greenies who are into saving money, getting out of debt and so on. Or worse, as opposed to the doomers who absolutely aren't going to buy anything. Tesla is pulling it off, with orders reportedly stretching into 2008, and Toyota/Lexus is pulling it off with their RX400h having record-setting orders.

So, yeah, why not. Green business strategy : Target the social animal.

We can only hope that the green tech at the high end eventually trickles down into the mass market. It will take 20, 30 years to replace the global vehicle fleet, even if all those advanced lithium-ion battery prototypes go into production right now. And it will take even longer to replace "conventional" buildings with "green" buildings.

Hmm. I wonder if there is enough time.

(2007-03-30 17:08:54 SGT) [Musings] Permalink

Associated Press picks up on peak oil

energybulletin.net :

The Associated Press has just put out a story on the peak oil report released today by the Government Accountability Office (GAO).

It will now be published in dozens or hundreds of newspapers and news sites. It's already appeared at:

MSN
Houston Chronicle
Forbes
Business Week

Report : Government Needs Plan for Oil Peak

The U.S. government is in need of a strategy to minimize potentially dire economic consequences after worldwide oil production peaks and begins to decline, the investigative arm of Congress said Thursday. The Government Accountability Office said in a report that most studies have found oil production will reach a peak sometime between now and 2040.

The report warns that, as the world's largest oil consumer, the U.S. is vulnerable to significant economic troubles, brought about by rising prices, if a peak arrives and no technology exists to replace petroleum-based transportation fuels. "The consequences of a peak and permanent decline in oil production could be even more prolonged and severe than those of past oil supply shocks," the GAO report said.

While the federal government has numerous efforts to forecast oil production and promote alternatives to oil, those efforts are spread across multiple agencies and are not focused explicitly on the "peak oil" problem, the report said. "There is no formal strategy for coordinating and prioritizing federal efforts dealing with peak oil issues," the GAO said. In letters to the GAO, the Energy Department and Interior Department agreed with most aspects of the report.

See also :

1. GAO: U.S. needs a peak oil strategy

(2007-03-30 13:12:51 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

GAO: U.S. needs a peak oil strategy

energybulletin.net -> gao.gov :

U.S. Government Accountability Office :

The U.S. economy depends heavily on oil, particularly in the transportation sector. World oil production has been running at near capacity to meet demand, pushing prices upward. Concerns about meeting increasing demand with finite resources have renewed interest in an old question: How long can the oil supply expand before reaching a maximum level of production-a peak-from which it can only decline?

GAO

1. examined when oil production could peak,
2. assessed the potential for transportation technologies to mitigate the consequences of a peak in oil production, and
3. examined federal agency efforts that could reduce uncertainty about the timing of a peak or mitigate the consequences. To address these objectives, GAO reviewed studies, convened an expert panel, and consulted agency officials.

What GAO Recommends

To better prepare for a peak in oil production, GAO recommends that the Secretary of Energy work with other agencies to establish a strategy to coordinate and prioritize federal agency efforts to reduce uncertainty about the likely timing of a peak and to advise Congress on how best to mitigate consequences. In commenting on a draft of the report, the Departments of Energy and the Interior generally agreed with the report and recommendations.

(2007-03-30 13:06:22 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Antarctic ice sheet is thinning : scientists

news.yahoo.com :

A Texas-sized piece of the Antarctic ice sheet is thinning, possibly due to global warming, and could cause the world's oceans to rise significantly, polar ice experts said. They said "surprisingly rapid changes" were occurring in Antarctica's Amundsen Sea Embayment, which faces the southern Pacific Ocean.

The scientists blamed the melting ice on changing winds around Antarctica that they said were causing warmer waters to flow beneath ice shelves. The wind change, they said, appeared to be the result of several factors, including global warming, ozone depletion in the atmosphere and natural variability.

Study is focusing on the Amundsen Sea Embayment because it has been melting quickly and holds enough water to raise world sea levels 6 meters, or close to 20 feet, the scientists said. "The place where the biggest change is occurring is the Amundsen Sea Embayment," said Donald Blankenship of the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics. "One, it's changing, and two, it can have a big impact," he said in a Webcast with a number of conference participants.

See also :

1. Water found under Antarctic ice to raise sea level forecasts
2. Threat of 16 feet rise in sea level
3. Antarctica under siege

(2007-03-30 12:59:24 SGT) [Env] Permalink

1 in 10 at risk from rising seas, storms: study

peakoil.com -> news.yahoo.com :

1 in 10 people in the world, mostly in Asia, live in coastal areas at risk from rising seas and more powerful storms that may be caused by global warming, an international study showed. A zone less than 10 meters (33 ft) above sea level "contains some 2% of the world's land and 10% of its population," according to the study to be published in the April edition of the journal Environment and Urbanization. The researchers urged governments to make billion-dollar policy shifts to encourage more settlements inland rather than in coastal regions that may suffer ever more storm surges and erosion.

Based on new computer population models and NASA satellite data, it estimated that 634 million people lived in the coastal zone in 2000, including 360 million in towns and cities. More than 75% were in Asia. The report said even people living up to 10 meters above sea level could be vulnerable to cyclones, subsidence, erosion of river deltas or intrusion of salty sea water onto cropland.

Ranked by population, China is most at risk with 143 million people living by the coast, followed by India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, Egypt and the United States. By another measure, small island states will be hardest hit. More than 90% of the Maldives, the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, the Cayman Islands and the Turk and Caicos Islands are less than 10 meters above sea level.

See also :

1. Water found under Antarctic ice to raise sea level forecasts
2. Global warming scenarios (San Francisco, Indonesia, Bangladesh)

(2007-03-30 12:50:34 SGT) [Env] Permalink

First eco-friendly precinct at Punggol may be built by 2011

channelnewsasia.com, sengkang.com :

Everything about Treetops@Punggol, which is under Housing and Development Board's Build-to-Order system, spells eco-friendly. The new eco-precinct has been designed to harness the elements of nature such as light, rainfall and wind to promote sustainable green living.

There will be more greenery with an eco-deck above the car park, skyrise greening on its roofs and a community garden. These features are expected to lower the surrounding temperature by as much as 4 degrees Celsius. For energy efficiency, solar panels will be installed on the roof to power the common corridors of the estates as well as the eco-deck. This will save 80% of energy used. Motion sensors will also be introduced at the podium car park to provide on-demand lighting. A rainwater collection system will be implemented where the water collected will be used to wash the common corridors. There will be an integrated wash basin and toilet pedestal system in the flats to promote water conservation as well as a dedicated refuse chute for recycling.

For these extra features, the flats will cost slightly more than other apartments in the same area. The prices range from S$139,000 to S$254,000 for 3- and 4-room units, and S$370,000 to S$383,000 for five-roomers. There will be a total of 700 units offered.

Treetops@Punggol will be located at the junction of Punggol Road, Punggol Drive and Punggol Place – a few minutes' walk from the Punggol MRT station and the Damai LRT station. Treetops@Punggol has been awarded the Green Mark under a scheme to promote eco-friendly building technologies and designs. The government has announced that it will adopt the Green Mark scheme for all new public housing projects from January.

See also :

1. Singapore government encourages firms, developers to be more environment-friendly

(2007-03-30 12:37:52 SGT) [Env] Permalink

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