Peak Oil and Limits to Growth - Dennis Meadows at ASPO 5

Dennis Meadows is one of the key figures in the environmental movement over the last 50 years, and one of the authors of perhaps the single best known environmental book "Limits to Growth", published in 1972.

The contribution of Limits to Growth was to show that population and industrial growth are inherently exponential, and that exponential growth takes a resource to its limits very quickly. 35 years of data shows that our original study results were correct. Climate has already peaked, global food production will peak in the next 15 years, even with no energy crisis, water is nearing its peak, oil being just one peak of many. In 1972 when the first LTG was published we were below the limits to growth. Now we are well above. We have overshot the Earth's carrying capacity.

World population is increasing exponentially. The gap between rich and poor is widening, in China now 60% of the wealth is controlled by 1% of the population. Our ecological footprint was overshot in the 1970s. We are now at 120% of global capacity, and can't go much higher. Some indicators of overshoot are the deterioration in renewable resources, surface and ground water, forests, fisheries, agricultural land, rising levels of pollution. Also growing demand for capital, resources and labour by military and industry to secure, process and defend resources, and rising levels of personal debt. Insurance company losses are also rising.

The issue is not that you are running out of something, rather that the quality of the resource depletes. One of the reasons it is hard to (see change coming? Change direction quickly?) is long delay and ambiguous signals. Replacing oil with another energy source is one thing, replacing the infrastructure is a whole other area.

(2006-08-29 13:20:33 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

1500 days until the Peak - Chris Skrebowski at ASPO 5

energybulletin.net :

Peak oil is the point where further expansion of production becomes impossible. Peak oil is when flows can't meet required demand. What do current high oil prices tell us? The market is saying 'send more oil!'. High prices have failed to bring new supply to meet this demand. In the Third World, high oil prices are already having a huge impact. Demand is now starting to come down to reach supply. So why are supplies peaking? We are not finding enough new oil. In 2005 we found 5 billion barrels, and we used 30 billion, a ratio of 6:1.

According to this year's BP statistics, OECD production peaked in 1997, non-OPEC production peaked in 2002, North America and Mexico peaked in 2000, and are in a 19.2% decline. The North Sea peaked in 1999 and is already down by 20%. Norway peaked in 2001. The top 5 decliners now are the US, Norway, UK, Syria and Iran. Depletion is running at 1.2 mnb/d and rising. Enhanced recovery makes no big difference. 90% of known reserves are already in production.

The most likely Peak Oil date is late 2010, give or take 2 years each side. We need a mixture of biofuels, efficiency, heavy oil and tar sands and a nuclear renewal. Peak will occur between 2010 and 2011, at 92-94 million barrels a day. We are still in denial of this, but the fact is that we only have 1,500 days until the peak. The new EIA report says the same thing, although couched in caveats and provisos.

(2006-08-29 13:03:56 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Kinder Morgan agrees to $15 billion buyout

news.yahoo.com :

Oil and gas pipeline operator Kinder Morgan said it had agreed to be bought and taken private for $15 billion in cash by an investor group that includes Chief Executive Richard Kinder. The deal values Kinder Morgan at $107.50 per share, a 5.7% premium to the $101.70 stock price at Friday's close. The investor group includes Kinder Morgan management, Goldman Sachs, AIG, the Carlyle Group and Riverstone Holdings.

Richard Kinder, who will continue as chairman and CEO after the transaction closes, will reinvest all of his 24 million shares in the company, which operates 43,000 miles of pipelines. Kinder Morgan said it expected to complete the deal by early 2007, subject to stockholder and regulatory approvals.

(2006-08-29 00:17:56 SGT) [Biz] Permalink

Chad orders 2 oil companies to leave

peakoil.com -> abcnews.go.com :

Chad's president, Idriss Deby, has ordered oil companies Chevron and Petronas to leave the country, with a deadline of just 24 hours, saying neither has paid taxes. Deby said Chad, which is one of Africa's newest oil producers and is setting up a national oil company, would take over the oil fields. Under the Exxon Mobil-led consortium, Exxon Mobil is responsible for 40% of the country's oil production, while Chevron and Petronas each have 30%.

Deby's declaration came a day after he urged his citizens to take a more active role in the production of oil. Deby has stressed that the country "should fully enjoy its oil, mining and other resources." Chad has struggled with discontent over its poor economy, and unhappiness has intensified over the failure of an immediate boost from its oil field, which went online in 2003.

- More "nationalization". The day will come when, due to politics or depletion - possibly both - the oil and gas exporting countries will reduce or stop exporting.