Sunday July 23, 2006

RIP Singapore Serf

samaryn.com -> november.blogsome.com, calamariforthought.blogspot.com :

A break from coverage of the regular issues - via Samaryn, found out that Singapore Serf, aka Knight of Pentacles has passed away.

Singaporeans who have migrated elsewhere - or who have considered or even entertained the thought of migration - might have come across his blog, chronicling his personal journey to Australia. From the very beginning, from his first thoughts ("I am considering being a quitter ..."), the emigration process, all the way to his arrival and first few months there. And then he stopped. All of a sudden, he started blogging again. He also left a comment on my blog entry regarding migrating Singaporeans.

Though I do not know him except as an occasional reader of his blog posts, I am disturbed. I wonder about what some call "dying in place", versus dying in a faraway country. I think back to our forefathers, who fled a disintegrating economy in South China to go to places like Singapore, Malaysia, and as far away as America and Canada, in the late 1800's and early 1900's. I think about the people in various countries, in various eras, who chose to stay where they were, despite economic and political upheaval, despite bombings, despite persecution, and those who chose to go away and take their chances elsewhere, invariably struggling, hoping to build a better life, if not for themselves, then for their succeeding generations. Fight versus flight.

They say that history does not repeat but it rhymes. But now we face a disintegrating planet. Peak oil, water, food - everything. Global climate change. I am not sure whether there is any better country on the planet to go to. No less than Stephen Hawking has suggested that humanity must go into space to survive. He's right - if it's a Star Trek future. But what if it's a Mad Max future? Or perhaps it might be something else entirely, something that we can't possibly imagine yet, because, as Jay Hanson says, we haven't grown the neurons to imagine it.

In the meantime - R.I.P. Singapore Serf. Like many others, I have been looking forward to your continuing chronicles. You will be missed.

(2006-07-23 15:26:03 SGT) [Musings] Permalink Comments [1]

Russian energy model challenges OPEC

peakoil.com -> atimes.com :

In the lead-up to the G8 summit in St Petersburg, Russia presented a revolutionary agenda that leaders of the developing states in Africa and Asia should have every reason to support. This is a new Russian scheme for supplying, consuming and pricing energy - principally oil and gas, but also coal and uranium - to the world.

The OPEC model has been limited to crude oil; the Russian model aims at covering supply of both crude oil and natural gas. The Russian model aims to supplant the Saudis, emphasizing Russia's global lead in gas reserves and in barrel of oil equivalent (boe). Already, Russia exceeds Saudi Arabia as the largest producer in boe terms (13.3 million boe per day, compared with 10 million boe/d for Saudi Arabia); the largest exporter in boe terms (18.7% of global hydrocarbon exports); and the largest reserve base (16.3% of world hydrocarbon reserves boe).

In the OPEC model, suppliers hold much of their cash and government securities in US-controlled institutions. In the Russian model, cash is held in the form of a currency basket; conversion from cash is sought into non-US assets, particularly in the European market.

The Russian model also extends to energy-convertible coal, uranium, and other mineral resources. The US, Australia, Canada and other resource-exporting states have sought to gain unlimited access to search and development of Russian minable resources. The Russian model rejects this, and instead assigns priority and equity control of domestic resources to national resource companies.

- This is big. With the export of more energy output in boe terms than Saudi Arabia, Russia is starting to assert its leadership. And, unlike the Saudi's, the Russians have nukes, which means nobody is going to mess with them any time soon.

This time, I think, the Russians have all the cards. Perhaps I will go long on Russia.

See also :

1. Russia initiates SCO energy club

(2006-07-23 14:26:43 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

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