Thursday March 30, 2006

Crunch time not quite over

... well, at least not yet. There are still bugs to be fixed, and there is still testing to be done. Yep, still a cog in the machine. Turning. A tiny wheel in the great military machine, and everything. Supplies to be sent, shipments to be tracked. I don't really know what's inside those containers - soldiers' uniforms? Boots and bullets? Sundry and all.

I'm only able to squeeze in just this *one* blog entry, because I'm installing that monster of an app server - IBM Websphere - on my office machine. I figure it'll take maybe half a day. Darn couple of bug reports stated that they have been observed "only on Websphere" - hence, I have to install it in order to try to reproduce the problem, before I can even attempt to try to figure out what happened, and then finally, hopefully to fix the problem. Total Commander tells me the install files weigh in at 1,158,735KB. 1024K is 1 MB, 1048576KB is 1 GB. A whole freaking GIGABYTE of files to install. But then, on the other hand, Half Life 2 / Counter-strike is even bigger than that, right? ;)

Talking about Counter-strike, haven't had the time to play that for months. Would probably, as they say, get my ass handed to me, within the first 2 minutes anyway. Reflexes not as good as before, and my machine isn't exactly a first-class gaming machine - even though it *is* an AMD64, the graphics card I have is only an old 200-dollar one, not a brand-new, smoking-fast, energy-guzzling, 800- or 1000-dollar one.

As for the reflexes part, a very nice documentary on BBC titled, simply "Time", tells me why. The long and short of it is that it's because we're getting old. According to the documentary, there actually is a human internal clock (similar to your CPU clock), and it slows down as we age. So, the world seems to be getting faster? Nope - we're getting slower. Darn.

- Looking at the darn app server install, it's only at the second of three installers. Almost lunch time - gotta get out before the hordes descend on the food courts. Tick tock. Time goes by.

Talk about slow. Just started catching up on the "new", revamped version of the Battlestar Galactica series - I'm only a couple of years late, that's all :) - compare that to just watching Blade Runner recently, well over 20 years later.

And, as for my last post on peak oil investing, over a week ago? Well, I've joined up with a small group of energy investors (wasn't a free thing though) - who are - let's put it this way - in it for the money. They *are* making a bundle. I've "only" managed a few doublings, and one tripling, amongst my portfolio of shares. *They* are talking 1400%, 1200% and some such stratospheric numbers. Whoa. Much to learn, I have.

- Lunch time - hordes arriving soon. Got to go. Tick tock.

(2006-03-30 11:37:23 SGT) [Musings] Permalink Comments [1]

Tuesday March 21, 2006

On Peak Oil investing

energybulletin.net -> energybulletin.net :

In a recent missive, Kurt Cobb asked whether Peak Oil investing really mattered in the long run. He says it doesn't, those who say it does don't quite grasp the issue and for the majority it doesn't matter anyway. To all of those three statements, I give a categorical "No". The fact that I and others do say it matters is the point of this post. The statement that we do not quite grasp the issue brings us to the heart of the matter in a post-peak oil world of diminished resources and the means to acquire them. If we are saying that people are going to return to a 1950s or a 1930s or even a 1900s lifestyle, then investments still matter because it also mattered back in those days. Even in the 1900s there was a stock market and there was a bond market. Far less participated in it, but the fact that they existed testified to a recognisable society that got by on a lot less energy.

And will all this matter to the majority whom Kurt Cobb says do not have the time or money to invest in these things? The answer is yes because they are already participating in it. Millions may not hold stocks in energy or any other asset designed to soften a Peak Oil slowdown, but they are more than likely holding such assets in their private and company pension schemes. Energy and related stocks are forming a greater part of the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and any other major international index one cares to mention. Which brings me to my final point. Kurt Cobb says markets are going to drop in value across the board when Peak Oil begins to grind, so what is the point? The point is this, investment determines purchasing power and purchasing power eventually buys the things which in some way contribute to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

There are three choices in the strategy of Peak Oil preparedness. You can either spend all your money now in buying the items you think will help produce the energy you will need in the future. Or you could move that same money into investments which will give leverage towards buying those same items when the effect of Peak Oil becomes clearer. Some will spend now on energy-conservation items but they will also move money away from assets which will wither in a post-Peak Oil world into assets which will increase or maintain purchasing power. After all, capital has to be set aside for contingencies and no-one would willingly let their hard-earned cash stay in assets they know will depreciate rapidly.

So in conclusion, invest now in goods which will decrease energy dependency but also invest in an unwritten future through a diversity of assets which will maintain purchasing power. If anything is certain, it is that money will still exist on the other side of Hubbert's Peak and the various goods and services that it can purchase.

- I consider this significant enough to post it up during office lunch hour. Among the many possible categories of peakoiler types (doomer, soft-lander, etc), I consider myself a moderate, and I am a Peak Oil investor. And I have encouraged others to do the same. Does it matter? Yes, it does. One dollar equals one vote. The money investors put into certain companies supports the efforts of these companies - which, in my case, will include exploring for, and extracting those resources upon which the world economy depends. It also includes companies which are looking into and developing alternative sources of energy. Every dollar I put into the shares of these companies supports the share price at a certain level. So, yes, it does matter.

If nothing else, there's always the "greed appeal". Why buy Google and Apple which have "merely" quadrupled and tripled? Some of the stocks in the energy and resources sector have been rocketing over 1000% - and even so, they *still* remain relatively obscure. Time to start doing your homework? You bet.

(2006-03-21 13:13:56 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Offer, offer

Every working day, I walk past this shop. Twice. Once on the way to work, and once on the way back home. Every time, there is this announcement playing back on a loudhailer in a seemingly endless loop : "Alarm clock one dollar fifty cent ... caller ID phone nine dollar ninety cent ... offer, offer. Alarm clock one dollar fifty cent ... caller ID phone nine dollar ninety cent ... offer, offer ..."

Made in China, obviously. With ongoing inflation in the money supply, and prices of commodities making record highs every week or so, I wonder how long China can keep this up.

(2006-03-21 10:54:02 SGT) [Musings] Permalink

Monday March 13, 2006

Cog in the machine

I don't have much time to blog. I am a cog in the machine.

(2006-03-13 12:35:36 SGT) [Musings] Permalink Comments [1]

Wednesday March 08, 2006

Singapore to join Kyoto Protocol

todayonline.com :

Singapore has committed itself to becoming a party to the Kyoto Protocol climate treaty by the end of this year. Delivering the good news in Parliament yesterday was a beaming Environment and Water Resources Minister Yaacob Ibrahim, who said this was in line with Singapore's intention to participate in the international debates on managing greenhouse gas emission levels in ways that would not harm economic growth.

The Kyoto Protocol, which came into effect in February last year, is an accord which requires developed countries to cut down on emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases to about 5 per cent below 1990 levels. "Climate change or global warming is one of the major global environmental challenges of our time," said Dr Yaacob. "The international community needs to take concerted action to deal with climate change before it's too late."

With Singapore's primary greenhouse gas being carbon dioxide generated from energy use, the Government is adopting stricter measures to improve energy efficiency. From the middle of next year, it will be compulsory for all air-conditioners and refrigerators - described by Hong Kah GRC MP Dr Amy Khor as "energy guzzlers" as they make up 40 to 65 per cent of an average household's electricity bill - to carry energy efficiency labels. Other appliances such as clothes dryers and water heaters could join the list soon.

Also high on the agenda of the Ministry of Environment and Water Resources is to raise the awareness of the public at large about environmental issues. The Singapore Environment Council and the National Environment Agency will roll out a public awareness programme on energy efficiency and climate change next month. The target audience will be the transport sector and households, which together account for 30% of all carbon dioxide emissions.

See also :

1. Kyoto Protocol at Montreal
2. Carbon market for airline, auto sectors
3. Why America finally woke up to climate change threat

(2006-03-08 12:42:56 SGT) [Env] Permalink

Saturday March 04, 2006

Living with Peak Oil awareness

peakoil.com -> dailykos.com -> new-worlds.org :

Peak Oil refers to a theory advanced by the geologist Dr. Marion King Hubbert that a natural resource like oil follows a bell-shaped production curve over time. When it reaches its peak and begins a downward trend the price and availability of this resource gets out of hand quickly. We'll probably reach the peak within a decade, give or take a few years. Some think we're already there. What does this mean? It means the era of cheap oil is almost over. Humans have taken advantage of a readily available resource that will virtually disappear within a few decades and produced a colossal population boom. What happens to a species that gobbles up everything in the petrie dish? It begins to die off quickly.

When I read all of this I was in a panic. It couldn't be true could it? Panic was followed by rage. How could our leaders be so stupid and short sighted? But then I realized it's not just the current leadership. It's the natural tendency of humanity to take advantage of what nature gives us. We found a way to tap into hundreds of millions of years of energy accumulation and exploit it. Of course it was going to happen. Rage was followed by despair. I have no significantly valuable post peak skills. I'm not a farmer, nor am I a hunter. I work in high tech. Without computers and an ever present stream of electricity required to operate them my ability to build software is pretty useless.

But it couldn't last. I couldn't go on as an emotional cripple paralyzed by my fears- while doing a damn good job of bumming out my family. The final phase for me - or at least the present one - is acceptance, but not resignation. Having a pretty good idea that the current style of modern civilization is in for some major changes, I've taken to cherishing that which I really enjoy about modern mankind's achievements. And the technology! It's only due to the extraordinary bounty of fossil fuels that any of this has become possible.

The question I had to ask myself was, what can I really do to make things better? I'm starting slowly. I bought a Prius (another high tech toy) and now get a great lift out of cracking the 50MPG barrier on a given trip. I'm educating myself on a variety of subjects that could prove useful in a post-peak world. Mostly I'm reading what others who have peak oil awareness and seem to have integrated this awareness are writing.

I feel that the faster the awareness of peak oil is spread, the faster people will get through the paralyzed stage and become part of the solution to whatever degree solutions can be found. I'm even enjoying imagining a new reality in which we don't have this potentially devastating transition in front of us, where life is fresh, energetic, creative and sustainable. Something beyond dog eat dog and whoever dies with the most toys wins. That blessed state may not arrive in my lifetime, but maybe my son and the children of friends and family can begin to see the benefits, or their children. The important thing is to start getting there.

(2006-03-04 11:12:28 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

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