Monday February 13, 2006

Deffeyes : Peak Oil Date passed on 16 Dec 2005

peakoil.com (thread) -> princeton.edu :

Kenneth Deffeyes :

In the January 2004 Current Events on this web site, I predicted that world oil production would peak on Thanksgiving Day, November 24, 2005. In hindsight, that prediction was in error by three weeks. An update using the 2005 data shows that we passed the peak on December 16, 2005.

The world peak would happen when 1.0065 trillion barrels have been produced (half of 2.013). The cumulative world production at the end of 2004 was 0.9812 trillion barrels and at the end of 2005 it was 1.00748 trillion. During the year, we passed the halfway point. The graph shows the date of the crossover: December 16, 2005 :

Since we have passed the peak without initiating major corrective measures, we now have to rely primarily on methods that we have already engineered. Energy conservation is by far the most important. Initiatives that are already engineered and ready to go are biodiesel from palm oil, coal gasification (for both gaseous and liquid fuels), high-efficiency diesel automobiles, and revamping our food supply. Every little bit helps, but even if wind energy continues its success it will still be a little bit.

That's it. I can now refer to the world oil peak in the past tense. My career as a prophet is over. I'm now an historian.

See also :

1. Peak Oil & Thanksgiving Day 2005

(2006-02-13 13:31:03 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

The atom may be the future - again

peakoil.com -> theglobeandmail.com :

Prices for uranium oxide ("yellowcake") went into a deep freeze that set in when the Western world went cold on fission after the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant meltdown in 1979. Smacked hard again by the more serious Chernobyl disaster in the Ukraine in 1986, the price had plunged to less than $9 (U.S.) a pound by early 1990, as the United States and other nations abandoned plans to expand their fleets of atomic power plants. Since bottoming out at just over $7 a pound in December 2001, uranium has redeemed itself by rocketing skyward, recently hitting $37.50 on the spot market.

The rise has been fuelled by a variety of developments, including a growing interest in atomic power in electricity-starved China and India, both of which are planning to double their reactor fleets over the next 15 years, and by a renewed interest in the West, where, in the age of global warming, there is a growing push to reduce fossil fuel emissions. In all, the International Atomic Energy Agency is now forecasting 60 additional plants will be added by 2020 to the approximately 440 currently producing power in 31 countries around the world.

The icing on the yellowcake has been the entry of hedge funds and other speculators into the spot market, buying up millions of pounds of uranium, betting the value will continue to rise. The new speculative interest has had a significant impact in an industry that currently mines only about 108 million pounds of uranium a year, but where demand is running at 180 million pounds.

See also :

1. Gas crisis prompts Italians to reconsider nuclear energy
2. France will run trains free from fossil fuel
3. China : Nuclear Leap Forward
4. Malaysia "needs to develop nuclear energy"
5. Toshiba plans to triple nuclear power sales

(2006-02-13 13:19:13 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

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