The Collapse of Complex Systems - Dale Allen Pfeiffer

We talk about energy depletion, global climate change, overpopulation and a host of other problems, but these are only symptoms of the true problems. What is really happening is that a complex system is approaching a systemic breakdown due to flaws in fundamental conceptions. So long as we do not change our concepts of prosperity and economic growth, and so long as we do not take into account the true costs of environmental destruction and worker exploitation, the breakdown will proceed. In the meantime, we will simply be dealing with the symptoms instead of curing the disease.

Even if there were a perfect technofix for energy depletion and time enough to implement the fix, this would not solve the fundamental problem of which energy depletion is just a symptom. Should we find and implement the perfect technofix, population would continue to grow. The adoption of conspicuous consumption (otherwise known as the American lifestyle) by more and more people will result in graver problems. And the eventual population crash will be even worse. This is why scientists and engineers have been warning us for over a decade not to expect technofixes.

When we talk about peak oil, then we must either hope for a technofix or head for the hills armed for survival. But when we realize that peak oil is only a symptom of the true problem, then we also realize that neither technofixes nor personal escape will really solve our problems. So let us state once and for all: the problem is not peak oil or energy depletion, nor global climate change, nor overpopulation. The problem is the collapse of a complex system due to fundamental conceptual flaws.

When we have focused upon the real problem, then we can begin to contemplate a solution on the grassroots level, based on the development of a localized, sustainable socioeconomic system that makes the environment and community an integral part of the equation both on the social level and on the individual level. Then, and only then, can we begin to solve the problem.

Demand destruction: who gets destroyed?

energybulletin.net -> resourceinsights.blogspot.com :

An economist who accepts the possibility of an oil peak may believe that the marketplace will allow us to make a relatively smooth transition to a new energy economy as the price encourages the development of alternatives to oil and as demand is destroyed. The latter phrase is often glossed over. But demand destruction is at the core of misconceptions by economists about the likely course of events leading up to and following an oil peak.

An economist will point out that people will stop using oil for some applications and will turn to alternatives where they are available. All that is true enough. But it is worth asking what they mean by "applications." In reality, it is the poor who will stop using oil for "some applications," both in industrialized countries and across the world. If alternatives are not available or are just as expensive, they will simply have to forgo the benefits of those "applications." That will help keep a lid on oil prices, but it won't solve the problem: too little oil for all the activities that power and feed 6 billion people.

The heightened price of oil would certainly encourage conservation - i.e., demand destruction - but that conservation might come in the form of terrible hardship for millions and perhaps billions of people and possibly death for many. That would give a rather gruesome connotation to the notion of demand destruction.

If one assumes that the oil peak is far off and that technology will allow us to make a smooth transition to the next energy economy (and solve other related problems that threaten to annihilate us such as global warming), then there is no need to worry about the effects of sudden demand destruction in the oil markets. But, if the peak arrives soon, say, within the next 10 to 15 years, then no bloodless abstraction such as "demand destruction" will be able to obscure the fact the it is people who are going to get destroyed, and lots of them.

(2006-01-18 13:14:36 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Environment in crisis: 'We are past the point of no return'

peakoil.com -> news.independent.co.uk :

The world has already passed the point of no return for climate change, and civilisation as we know it is now unlikely to survive, according to James Lovelock, the scientist and green guru who conceived the idea of Gaia - the Earth which keeps itself fit for life. In a profoundly pessimistic new assessment, Professor Lovelock suggests that efforts to counter global warming cannot succeed, and that, in effect, it is already too late.

His concerns have increased as evidence of a warming climate has mounted. For example, he shared the alarm of many scientists at the news last September that the ice covering the Arctic Ocean is now melting so fast that in 2005 it reached a historic low point. Global warming was proceeding so fast that only a major expansion of nuclear power could bring it under control, he said. He is calling on governments to begin large-scale preparations for surviving - in his own phrase - "a hell of a climate", likely to be in Europe up to 8C hotter than it is today.

Professor Lovelock draws attention to one aspect of the warming threat in particular, which is that the expected temperature rise is currently being held back artificially by a global aerosol - a layer of dust in the atmosphere right around the planet's northern hemisphere - the product of the world's industry. This shields us from some of the sun's radiation in a phenomenon which is known as "global dimming" and is thought to be holding the global temperature down by several degrees. But with a severe industrial downturn, the aerosol could fall out of the atmosphere in a very short time, and the global temperature could take a sudden enormous leap upwards.

Global warming, caused principally by the large-scale emissions of industrial gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), is almost certainly the greatest threat that mankind has ever faced, because it puts a question mark over the very habitability of the Earth. Over the coming decades soaring temperatures will mean agriculture may become unviable over huge areas of the world; water supplies for millions or even billions may fail. Rising sea levels will destroy coastal areas in low-lying countries such as Bangladesh. Environmental refugees will overwhelm the capacity of any agency, or indeed any country, to cope. Modern urban infrastructure will face devastation from powerful extreme weather events, such as Hurricane Katrina which hit New Orleans last summer.

The skyscraper that produces more energy than it consumes

peakoil.com -> europaconcorsi.com :

Plans for a 69-storey skyscraper that can produce more energy than it consumes and promises to set new standards for sustainable architecture have been unveiled. Chicago-based Skidmore, Owings & Merrill has designed the Pearl River Tower, a corporate headquarters planned for Guangzhou, China, that harvests wind and solar energy. The design is among three finalists in an international design competition for a corporate headquarters for a major Chinese company.

Pearl River Tower's sculpted facade directs wind to a pair of openings on the building's mechanical floors. The travelling winds push turbines which generate energy for the building's heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems. Energy consumption is reduced by maximizing natural day-lighting, reducing solar gain in air conditioned spaces, retaining rainwater for gray-water usage and using the sun to heat the hot water supply. Stack venting, radiant slab cooling and caisson heat sinks work to chill the building. AC current is generated by solar collectors on the facade.

- Edited out some of the hyperbole. I'm kind of sceptical about the "producing more energy than it consumes" part, I'll believe it when it's actually built, up and running :)

(2006-01-18 12:32:34 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

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