So much for biodiesel

In 2003, the biologist Jeffrey Dukes calculated that the fossil fuels we burn in one year were made from organic matter "containing 44 x 10¹⁸ grams of carbon, which is more than 400 times the net primary productivity of the planet's current biota". In plain English, this means that every year we use four centuries' worth of plants and animals.

The idea that we can simply replace this fossil legacy - and the extraordinary power densities it gives us - with ambient energy is the stuff of science fiction. There is simply no substitute for cutting back.

Last week, the chairman of Malaysia's federal land development authority announced that he was about to build a new biodiesel plant. His was the ninth such decision in four months. Four new refineries are being built in Peninsula Malaysia. Two foreign consortiums are setting up rival plants in Singapore. All of them will be making biodiesel from the same source: oil from palm trees. Before oil palms are planted, vast forest trees, containing a much greater store of carbon, must be felled and burnt. Having used up the drier lands, the plantations are moving into the swamp forests, which grow on peat. When they've cut the trees, the planters drain the ground. As the peat dries it oxidises, releasing even more carbon dioxide than the trees. In terms of its impact on both the local and global environments, palm biodiesel is more destructive than crude oil from Nigeria.

- Ah, so much for biodiesel eh? Besides questioning it from the multiple perspectives of scale of production, EROEI, competition for arable land, there's also now the question of climate impact from carbon emissions.

And, the "400 years worth" factoid is staggering. This ranks right up there together with the 98 tons per gallon one. Barring a miracle or demand destruction, the song might now go - "oh what fun, it is to ride, on the downhill Hubbert sleigh ..."

The housing bubble has burst

peakoil.com -> bloomberg.com :

In the U.S. bond market, the housing bubble has burst. Bonds backed by home loans to the riskiest borrowers, the fastest growing part of the $7.6 trillion mortgage market, have lost about 2.5 percent since September on concern an 18-month rise in interest rates may force more than 150,000 consumers to default.

The slump in the bonds is one of the first signs the housing boom is ending after the Federal Reserve's 12 interest-rate increases. Real estate has accounted for about half the economy's growth since 2001, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.

The Fed is signaling that it's unlikely to stop lifting borrowing costs until housing cools. "Froth" in housing markets may be spilling over into mortgage markets, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan warned an American Bankers Association convention in September. A rise in interest-only loans that initially don't pay down principle and the introduction of "exotic" variable-rate mortgages "are developments that bear close scrutiny," he said.

Airlines cram more fliers into fewer seats, flights

peakoil.com -> usatoday.com :

For the first time in recent aviation history, the financially troubled U.S. airline industry is shrinking domestic flying capacity. For consumers, diminished capacity could mean higher average fares, fewer choices, fuller flights and fruitless searches for mileage upgrades and award travel. For communities, it could mean deteriorating or disappearing air service - some cities have seen airlines pull out completely, and airport directors in many places are feeling vulnerable to future cuts. For the airlines themselves, it could mean a fighting chance to regain profitability.

U.S. airlines have lost $32.3 billion in the last four years and are expected to lose $10 billion more this year. Top executives such as American CEO Gerard Arpey have long argued that excess flying capacity needs to be trimmed if the industry is to regain its financial health.

Delta, which has been in bankruptcy reorganization since September, has cut the deepest among U.S. airlines. Delta and its regional partners are flying 19% fewer domestic seats this month than in December 2004. Northwest, also in bankruptcy reorganization since September, and its regional partners have shed 11% of U.S. capacity in much the same way as Delta - less frequent service on many routes and smaller jets.

(2005-12-07 13:02:23 SGT) [Biz] Permalink

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