More Peak Oil on Time

time.com :

Time Magazine, October 31, 2005 Vol. 166 No. 18 :

1. How to Kick the Oil Habit (The Future of Energy) - as prices rise, the race for new energy sources - from wind farms to liquid coal - heats up. Get ready for the withdrawal symptoms.
2. How to Save $$$ Now
3. It's the End of Oil / Oil Is Here to Stay
4. How Green Can We Get?
5. 7 Cool New Ideas - Nature is awash with renewable, eco-friendly energy sources. Will they make economic sense?

"Peak Oil" to "Transition One"

energybulletin.net, by Dr. Ali Samsan Bakhtiari, National Iranian Oil Company Chief Advisor :

In my humble opinion, we should now have reached 'Peak Oil'. At present, global oil output fluctuates around 82 mb/d as some institutions try vainly to push 2005 statistics towards 83 and 84 mb/d. But they will be obliged to backtrack as 'actual' oil supplies fail to follow their 'paper' ones.

So that, in the 'Peak Oil' aftermath, we are about to enter what I call 'Transition One' [T1] - a rather bizarre phase akin to a vague 'no-man's-land' between still adequate oil supplies and the clear realization that demand has definitely left supply behind. Fortunately, the hidden advantage of 'T1' is that worldwide oil supplies will remain almost constant during this initial phase, allowing those with foresight, intelligence and agility to begin preparing for the next, more-turbulent phases: 'T2', 'T3' ...

(2005-10-27 13:44:04 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

GM subpoenaed in accounting probe

news.yahoo.com, reuters.com :

General Motors Corp. said it had been subpoenaed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as part of a probe into its accounting practices and other matters. It was the latest blow to the world's largest automaker, which is bleeding money and confronting its biggest financial crisis since a narrow brush with bankruptcy 13 years ago.

GM has said it could be on the hook for up to $12 billion in benefits at Delphi because of guarantees it offered when it spun its former parts arm off in 1999. Delphi filed the largest bankruptcy in U.S. automotive history earlier this month. GM, which has lost about $3.8 billion through the first nine months of 2005, said last week that it was exploring the possible sale of a majority stake in GMAC.

The issuance of a subpoena indicated that the SEC had upgraded its investigation into GM's pension accounting practices to a formal status from what had previously been described as an informal probe

Singapore to setup 2 biodiesel plants

channelnewsasia.com :

Singapore's petrochemicals industry got a boost on Wednesday, as two foreign companies announced they would set up biodiesel plants here. These facilities will be a first for Singapore, and will attract more than S$80 million in investments. The two biodiesel plants will be built on Jurong Island, Singapore's petrochemicals hub.

The first is from a German family business, Peter Cremer, which will initially invest up to S$34 million in the Jurong Island plant with a capacity of 200,000 metric tons per annum. The second biodiesel plant, a joint venture between Wilmar Holdings and Archer Daniels Midland Company, will have an initial capacity of 150,000 metric tons a year, which can be raised to 300,000. Most of the products will be exported initially.

Both companies say Singapore was selected for their first biodiesel plant in Asia because of its excellent connectivity. Biodiesel is a growing energy source and is said to be a cleaner fuel than traditional petroleum-based products. From Singapore, the plants will have easy access to abundant palm oil feedstock from the neighbouring countries of Malaysia and Indonesia.

- 200K metric tons is roughly 1.4 million barrels. But that's per year, so per day it's around 4K barrels. So it's rather small-scale compared to a petroleum refinery which can do 1 million barrels every *day*. Well, anyway, it's a start. But I wonder, what is the EROEI? Most indications are that biofuels are barely over the critical 1.0 level, and there's always the question of whether available arable land is better used to grow food for the people or fuel for the machines.

NZ hikes rates to 7%

channelnewsasia.com :

New Zealand's central bank lifted the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 7.0 percent, warning of further rate rises and sending a strong message to home owners to curb their spending. "Borrowers and lenders alike need to recognise that the current rate of debt accumulation is unsustainable," Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor Alan Bollard said in a toughly worded statement. "The most serious risk to medium term inflation is the continuing strength of household spending, supported by a relentless housing market and rapid growth in mortgage lending."

The latest increase is not just bad news for home owners but also means higher borrowing costs for businesses, who are already suffering from high oil prices and a strong currency. Business confidence has plunged, with the ANZ National Bank's latest survey showing a net 55 percent of firms expecting general business conditions to deteriorate over the next year, down from a net 38 percent last month.

- So that means what, the NZ folks can probably get at least 7% interest for their savings accounts? And the Indonesians, I hear, get over 10%. Not too bad, but one must also consider the rate of money growth figures (M1 to M3), ongoing inflation, currency risk, and what TNX is doing.

(2005-10-27 11:58:02 SGT) [Biz] Permalink

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