The Silent Oil Crisis

The 25th August 2005 saw the price for a barrel of oil pass $68, just $12 from that high. Somehow strong Western economies have shrugged these prices off and we are left asking whether anything has really changed for the major industrial economies so dependent on cheap oil?

So maybe everything is fine until that $100 barrel mark. People talk of an oil crisis, but surely, since we are waiting for the $100 barrel, there is nothing to worry about. Right? Wrong. Around the world, silent to us, the oil crisis has truly begun. They are at the beginning of what some are calling 'The Great Decline'.

Just as rising sea levels threaten to flood low-lying lands unable to protect themselves, rising oil prices threaten countries with weak (low-lying) economies. Rising oil prices are a rising tide, and there are many examples to look at.

The signs of an oil crisis are already here in the UK, in Europe and also in the US, even if is still too inaudible to be heard as a serious warning by the general public. However, France's prime minister, Dominique de Villepin is already giving that very warning when he told a news conference on the 16th August 2005 that, "This crisis, we know, is likely to last. All the factors have come together for oil to remain expensive in the years and decades to come," he said.

(2005-08-27 23:43:00 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Eco-Driving

peakoil.com -> fcnp.com :

If you are not yet ready for eco-driving, you will be soon. Once gasoline reaches five dollars or more per gallon, drivers will have only one concern about their vehicles' performance: "How do I get the most distance out of this tank of gas for which I just paid so dearly?" Performance, acceleration, speed limits, radar detectors, speeding points and all the other concerns that grew out of cheap oil will disappear before the altar of miles-per-gallon. This is where eco-driving (getting the most out of each gallon) comes in.

The basic principle of eco-driving is a lot of gasoline and diesel fuel can be saved just by being very, very careful about when and how hard we push on the gas pedal. Most authorities say a 10% to 15% saving in fuel consumption is easy and that higher is possible with some special efforts.

In Europe, a whole eco-driving culture has grown up with formal classes, on-the-road training, and eco-driver certificates. Many European trucking companies require their drivers to be eco-certified and monitor their fuel consumption.

See also :

1. The golden rules of ECO-DRIVE style of driving (ecodrive.org)
2. Eco-Driving and Driving Behavior (cleanairwisconsin.org)
3. Ten top tips to reduce the impact of the car journey (carclubs.org.uk)
4. Environmentally Friendly "Eco-Driving" Tips (ford.com)

(2005-08-27 23:32:22 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

BBC : Has oil production peaked?

bbc.co.uk :

Oil prices have reached a record $68 per barrel, as demand rises and concerns are voiced about disruptions to supply. The latest rise came as the US reported a fall in gasoline stocks, while China said its crude imports had risen sharply.

Protests in Ecuador and Nigeria have affected output in recent weeks, and bad weather may disrupt production in Mexico and the North Sea. There is also concern that supplies from Iraq will be affected by arguments over the country's constitution.

The director of the International Monetary Fund, Rodrigo Rato, says Asian economies are at risk from the high oil price.

Has oil production peaked? Will prices rise again? How will the global economy be affected? Have you stopped using your car since petrol prices went up?

(2005-08-27 19:32:21 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Globalization's First Oil Shock - Stephen Roach

peakoil.com -> morganstanley.com

This is the first oil shock in the modern era of globalization. That means its impacts are likely to be compounded by the cross-border linkages that shape the global trade cycle. In today's US-centric world, that spells unusual vulnerability. If higher oil prices take a toll on the over-extended American consumer, repercussions in the rest of an externally-dependent world will be all the more acute. That puts Asia, the world's most rapidly growing region, right in the cross-hairs of the energy shock of 2005.

Globalization complicates the transmission of shocks around the world. That's especially the case with respect to the current energy shock. Countries will be hit both by the direct effects of rising energy costs, as well as by the indirect impacts of energy-related pressures on their major trading partners. To the extent that the American consumer remains the principal engine of growth on the demand side of the global economy, those nations that rely on exports to the US as major sources of growth will be hyper-sensitive to any energy-related cutbacks in US consumption.

- Stephen Roach is the Managing Director and Chief Economist of Morgan Stanley.

(2005-08-27 18:53:50 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

President Arroyo to visit Saudi Arabia, US for more oil supply

peakoil.com -> people.com.cn

Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is set to begin her oil supply-generated trip to Saudi Arabia and the United States next month, a local newspaper reported Thursday.

President Arroyo, according to Manila Bulletin, will appeal oil-producing countries to increase oil supply at affordable prices to the Philippines, which is facing the looming oil crisis, when she attends the summit of world leaders in New York City next month.

(2005-08-27 18:49:58 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Surging oil price; bosses wield axe

peakoil.com -> telegraph.co.uk

There was a sharp jump in the price of oil yesterday, as the CBI said British factories had slumped because of high energy prices. The employers body said it was "energy, not wages" that is biting into manufacturers, who are firing 20,000 to 25,000 staff every three months ...

(2005-08-27 18:47:05 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

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