The Hirsch Report

Over the past few months controversy has raged over the timing of Peak Oil - the moment when global oil production will reach its all-time maximum and begin its inevitable descent. Evidently the US Department of Energy is interested enough in the Peak-Oil debate to commission a report on the subject. Released in February this year by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), and titled "Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management," the report examines the likely consequences of the impending global peak. It was authored principally by Robert L. Hirsch ... and is as remarkable for its subsequent reception as for its content.

... here, then, is a significant report produced by an independent research company for the US Department of Energy, warning of a global problem of "unprecedented" proportions with economic, social, and political impacts that are likely to be extremely severe. The authors forecast "protracted economic hardship" for the United States and the rest of the world. It is a problem that deserves "immediate, serious attention."

Yet, half a year after its release, the Hirsch report is nowhere to be found. For several months it was archived, in PDF format, on a high school web site ... on July 7 the report disappeared from that site. The Atlantic Council (www.acus.org) is considering publishing the Hirsch report; however there is no projected date of release. When contacted, Dr. Hirsch replied that the document is "a public report, paid for and released by DOE NETL, and that it therefore could be reposted at will."

Project Censored is therefore posting the report in full at:
www.projectcensored.org/newsflash/The_Hirsch_Report_Proj_Cens.pdf

- Hmm, I wonder. Shades of Orwell ("Oceania was at war with Eurasia: therefore Oceania had always been at war with Eurasia"), or shades of Murphy ("Never ascribe to malice, that which can be explained by incompetence")?

(2005-07-31 12:23:21 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

HondaJet

vtec.net -> aopa.org :

The question these days is not whether the Japanese automotive manufacturers will enter the general aviation market, but when. Toyota certified an aircraft variant of its Lexus automotive engine in the 1990s, but never put it into production. Toyota for a number of years flew a high-performance single-engine airplane in Southern California ... Honda and Continental Motors signed an agreement in 2003 to study the marketplace for a four-cylinder, liquid-cooled avgas engine designed by Honda. Meanwhile, in Greensboro, North Carolina, Honda R&D Americas has stealthily been flying the HondaJet, a new-generation light business jet powered by a pair of the new engines.

... Honda tends to enter markets only when it can produce a product that performs better and at a higher value than other products in that category. In fact, the stated goals for the HondaJet project are to develop a lightweight business jet with a larger cabin, lower fuel consumption, and higher speed than existing business jets. If the test results hold true, it appears to be on that path with the HondaJet. The company says the five- to six-seat airplane will cruise at 420 knots at 30,000 feet and fly as high as 41,000 feet while maintaining a cabin pressure of 8,000 feet. Each Honda HF118 turbofan engine produces 1,670 pounds of static thrust (lbst) at takeoff. Slightly smaller overall than the Cessna CJ1+, the HondaJet cruises 10 percent faster, has a cabin that is 30 percent larger, and has a range about 40 percent greater on about 14 percent less thrust.

Although no one at Honda will commit to a price - stressing once again that the company considers this a research project at this point - some in the company suggest the price would be in the $3 million-to-$4 million range, compared to a Cessna CJ that starts at about $4.1 million.

- Fans can expect no less from Honda (see the figures in bold) - equal or better performance while consuming less resources, more bang for your buck et al. Speaking of which, if you have a couple of million of bucks, or more like $4 million, you can sign up for the waiting list (if there's going to be one). Me, I'd be happy to be able to put in the $30-40K for downpayment on a 2006 Civic. Or maybe that should go into the emergency reserve funds. Or oil stocks *grin*. We'll see.

Updates

It's a bit of a conundrum, really - how do you blog that you're busy when you're too busy to blog? :)

Really been too busy to even post an entry lately, not even on energy-related topics which are supposed to be a main focus of this blog (like, "events running their course", Chevron's (Caltex over here) latest campaign, Shell and Exxon production decline, a thread on self-sufficiency, Malaysia to become net oil importer, and then there's the fire that completely destroyed the Indian oil platform, and of course there's the "Powering the Future" article in the latest issue of National Geographic). Well, that's probably missing out on another 30 news items or so, but that's because of the news avalanche in this area in recent months (another sign of the impending peak?).

The good news is, after 3 months at the new job (after the events related here and here), I have recently received my confirmation letter. Good enough, for now.

On the flip side - 1. I've had to tunnel in to work on my work PC from home past midnight, 2. I've had to either come back or tunnel back on weekends ("crunch time", yada-yada), and 3. I really have got to go to work right now ... (yep, click on "Post & Publish")

(2005-07-29 09:07:09 SGT) [Musings] Permalink

Tuesday July 26, 2005

URL Encoding

Here's a good reference on Javascript URL encoding, specifically on the differences between escape(), encodeURI() and encodeURIComponent(). Of course, in the JDK there's always java.net.URLEncoder but when you're out there on a web page you only have Javascript to help you out with that part.

I forgot the one-way thingy, and kept trying to pass in a Javascript variable to URLEncoder. Silly, silly .. :)

(2005-07-26 13:25:42 SGT) [Tech] Permalink

Environment Suffers Severely In China's Dash to Develop

peakoil.com -> enn.com

China's environmental woes are so large that they've begun to generate social instability.

Choking on vile air, sickened by toxic water, citizens in some corners of this vast nation are rising up to protest the high environmental cost of China's economic boom. In one recent incident, villagers in this hilly coastal region grew so exasperated by contamination from nearby chemical plants that they overturned and smashed dozens of vehicles and beat up police officers who arrived to quell what was essentially an environmental riot.

Across China, entire rivers run foul or have dried up altogether. Nearly a third of cities don't treat their sewage, flushing it into waterways. Some 300 million of China's 1.3 billion people drink water that is too contaminated to be consumed safely. In rural China, sooty air depresses crop yields, and desert quickly encroaches on grasslands to the west. Filth and grime cover all but a few corners of the country.

China's central government isn't sitting still. It's enacting fuel-efficiency requirements for cars and shutting down mammoth dam-building and other projects. By some accounts, it now has world-class laws on environmental protection. Yet provincial and local officials, who feel pressure for economic growth, often shield polluters and ignore environmental laws ...

ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS

Here are some of China's environmental problems:

BAD AIR: China is the world's second-largest producer of greenhouse gases, after the United States. Two-thirds of its cities have poor-quality air, often due to coal dust from power plants. Auto exhaust is also a factor, and it will get worse: China expects to have 140 million automobiles plying its roads by 2020, seven times more than it has today.

BAD WATER: More than 30,000 children die each year in China from diarrhea that's due to contaminated water. Of China's seven biggest rivers, only the Pearl and the Yangtze are rated good in terms of water quality; the others are rated poor or dangerous. Forty percent of the raw sewage in the boom industrial city of Shenzhen, which has 10 million people, is flushed directly into city waterways.

WASTE: Just a snapshot: Chinese consumers throw out 2 billion plastic bags per day, clogging streambeds and landfills.

Resale Value of SUVs Tumbles

This article belongs to the GM, Ford and Chrysler bankruptcy watch story arc.

peakoil.com -> usatoday.com :

SUV and pickup owners — already stung by rising gasoline prices — are paying another penalty when it comes time to trade in or sell: falling resale values for the gas-thirsty vehicles. The resale values of large SUVs and pickups are slumping in response to a supply glut, higher gasoline prices and lower sales of new SUVs and pickups.

Roy Holderbaum's love affair with his 1993 GMC Yukon recently came to an abrupt end when his gas bill shot to $100 a week. Now, he wants someone to take the hulking SUV off his hands. "It's a gas-guzzler. I'm selling because I can't afford to drive it back and forth to work," said Holderbaum, 23, a suburban Detroit resident who has a 20-mile commute.

Owners of SUVs might be trying to dump their vehicles because they foresee trouble in new SUV sales, which are plummeting despite hefty rebates. Demand for new full-size SUVs has declined 12% this year.

"When you look at the contrast between compacts and full-size (SUVs), it has to be driven in part by gas prices," [Tom Kontos, chief economist at Adesa, a firm that tracks wholesale used vehicle prices] said. "Why else would there be such polarity?"