Saturday April 02, 2005

Saudi Arabia : Hubbert Peak arrived ...

peakoil.com (also) -> bmo.com

Excerpts from an issue of Basic Points, a report by Donald Coxe of Harris Investment :

... the combination of the news that there's no new Saudi Light coming on stream for the next seven years plus the 27% projected decline from existing fields means Hubbert's Peak has arrived in Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom's decline rate will be among the world's fastest as this decade wanes. Most importantly, Hubbert's Peak must have arrived for Ghawar, the world's biggest oilfield ...

The grim news from Ghawar has been replicated in the world's #2 field, Mexico's Canterell. Its production entered decline last year, and the Pemex people say there's nothing much they can do to halt its decline. The North Sea had a bad year, with significant production declines for both Norway and the UK ...

On March 25th, the Op-Ed page of The New York Times published three essays on this subject, and all took the view that oil shortages are very real and very threatening. Most notably, Kenneth S. Deffeyes, a professor emeritus of geology at Princeton, and author of Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak, stated that global oil production will peak this year or next, and then decline. He had been a colleague of Hubbert's at Shell during the 1950s. As far as I know, this is the first time that The Times has printed discussions of Hubbert's Peak on the Op-Ed page without printing scathing rebuttals.

The world is truly changing.

See also :

(2005-04-02 16:52:22 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

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