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Saturday June 05, 2010

Nokia bicycle charger announced for Nokia phones with 2mm charging jack

The world's top mobile phone maker Nokia on Thu 3 Jun 2010 released details of 4 new cheap phone models and a battery charger powered by the energy generated from riding a bicycle. The charger, which can be fitted into any Nokia phone with a 2 mm charger jack, uses a dynamo to generate electricity from the movement of the wheels. The price of the charger kit, which also includes a holder for securing the phone to the bicycle, will vary according to market, but in countries like Kenya, where the product was introduced, it would be around 15 euros (US$18.43). To begin charging, a cyclist needs to travel around 6 km/h (4 mph). Charging times will vary depending on battery model - a 10 minute journey at 10 km/h produces around 28 minutes of talk time or 37 hours of standby time.

- This is a pretty good idea not only for developing countries, but also for places in developed countries like in Europe or say Portland, Oregon and elsewhere where cycling for work or leisure is becoming popular. The charging rate seems to be pretty decent as well. The only thing is, you'd need a compatible Nokia phone that uses their proprietary 2mm charger pin, a format which apparently they seem to be going back to, even for the upcoming Nokia N8 that is the current talk of the town for the Nokia crowd. But already, the forums are abuzz with talk of looking for a 2mm to micro-USB charger converter plug for the rest of the smartphone models out there.

(2010-06-05 17:38:10 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Monday May 31, 2010

NYMEX crude oil prices fall on Spain downgrade after hitting $75.72 intra-day

reuters.com :

NYMEX crude oil futures ended lower on Fri 27 May 2010, posting the worst monthly decline since Dec 2008 at the height of the financial crisis, as a downgrade of Spain's credit rating sparked further euro zone worries and prompted oil traders to seek less risky assets. The day's retreat from a heady rally the day before accelerated past midday as Wall Street dropped sharply following news of the Fitch ratings agency's downgrade, stoking more worries that the euro-zone debt crisis would stifle global economic growth. NYMEX crude oil prices slid from $75.72 on disappointing consumer spending data and a report that business activity in the Midwest fell this month, overshadowing other reports that incomes rose and consumer confidence edged up.

- The sharp rise in crude oil prices in the past few sessions has been breathtakingly steep, but I'm not really buying it. Figuratively and literally. I've got about a couple of reasons for that, one fundamental and one technical. Fundamentally, while the US economy appears to be in the process of recovery, there are a couple of leading economic indicators that appear to have been rolling over in the past few weeks. Consumer spending had been flat in Apr 2010, while business activity has been growing less than expected.

On the technical front, you will see two opposing forces at work in the chart above. If we are looking at short-term trending (if you could call it that), then yes it appears that there has been a sharp upside reversal in the last few trading sessions, with oil prices hitting a local minimum in the $67 region, and they even seem to be on track to break above the 200-dma level. Which ought to be bullish. However, on a longer-term basis, there is a looming Death Cross in the process of formation, which is a 50/200-dma downside crossover. Now, as they all say, a technical formation isn't a technical formation until it is actually completed, but I wouldn't really want to bet against 50/200-dma crossovers if I could help it. Which is bearish, and further, that's on a longer-term basis.

Meanwhile, Business Week reports that : crude oil futures are "very weak" and are poised for a drop to $58, according to a technical analysis by Newedge Group. "The picture remains very heavy" for oil, and the trend is still down, said Veronique Lashinski, a senior research analyst for Newedge USA LLC in Chicago. After settling below $70, the next support level on a weekly basis is at $65.05 a barrel, and below that $58.32, according to Lashinski. - those support levels are roughly near what I've mentioned earlier. But of course, if it breaks the local high above $87, then the picture changes somewhat and we're back on track to $100 oil. Well, you never know.

(2010-05-31 12:39:55 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Sunday May 16, 2010

NYMEX crude oil prices plunge to $70 on US supply glut, euro contagion fears

channelnewsasia.com :

NYMEX crude oil prices tumbled to 3-month lows on Fri [14 May 2010] at the end of a volatile week in which the market was hit by eurozone economic concerns and a strong dollar. NYMEX light sweet crude for Jun 2010 delivery closed at $71.61 per barrel. The price had tumbled to $70.83, the lowest level since Feb 2010, before recouping some of its losses. Prices fell when American crude stockpiles rose by 1.9 million barrels, more than double the amount forecast by analysts. Crude oil prices had already collapsed by more than 10% last week as the market was rocked by euro contagion fears about the Greek debt crisis, a stronger dollar and sliding global stock markets.

The oil market had begun the week on a bright note, soaring on Monday after a $1-trillion EU-IMF eurozone rescue plan eased market concerns over the eurozone financial crisis. However, prices have since fallen as market enthusiasm waned for the massive bailout plan, while concern grew about higher Chinese inflation that could slow global economic growth. Oil also took a major hit from a stronger USD. The EUR/USD forex rate tumbled under 1.24 on Friday, plagued by concerns about debt and deficits in the eurozone. The IEA cut its projection for global oil demand this year in the face of public finance pressures in Europe that could drown recovery "in an ocean of public debt."

- What a difference a few weeks make. When earlier, oil prices were hitting local maximums of over $87, the prognosis was for economic recovery and there was talk about crude oil options going into the $90's and $100's, but then oil failed to reach those levels when the euro crisis hit. The euro contagion fear has been driving, among other things, the huge Dow 1000-point fall, a flight of safety into bonds and treasury instruments, and it has taken oil down $13 in 2-3 days and now oil prices are down in a waterfall-like drop of over $16 in a matter of a week or so.

A huge fall, but now I am looking at the next possible support levels being $70, $65 and $60 respectively. In comments I made to fellow investors earlier this week, I noted the following : meanwhile oil is down and gold is up. When I issued the "sell everything call", it was way early but I did manage to sell off [much of my risk holdings]. So far, -1 for buying back oil though nobody could have predicted the Dow 1000 meltdown and $13 oil fall, +1 for buying back gold on an an up trend and breaking new records. By breaking below $80, oil is now on track to hit the $70 support level and if that fails $65 and $60 are next supports. Remember though that tar sands operations, a critical energy source now that light sweet crude has peaked worldwide since May 2005, start turning unprofitable below $80 and start outright shutting down below $60 so we could have some support there.

In the big scheme of things, the contrarian community has already worked out a road map on the transition from a sovereign debt crisis to a currency crisis, which we are now witnessing. The next few stages could be even uglier and it's not just me saying that. If the world continues to go in the same direction, we are headed for bankruptcies, defaults, interest rate surges, and possibly worse. $60-70 oil could look like pretty decent prices then.

(2010-05-16 10:59:32 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Tuesday April 06, 2010

NYMEX crude oil prices surge above $86 to 17-month high on economic recovery

bloomberg.com :

Crude oil prices surged to the highest level in 17 months as growth in American jobs and service industries signaled that the economy is recovering from the worst recession since the 1930s. NYMEX crude oil prices for May 2010 delivery increased $1.75 to settle at $86.62, the highest closing price since 8 Oct 2008. The contract has risen for 5 consecutive sessions, the longest stretch in 6 weeks. Crude oil has climbed 65% in the past year. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 rose to 1187.44, an 18-month high.

Oil prices traded within a range of $68-$84 in the 6 months till Mar 2010, rising as investor confidence boosted equity markets. "It's 2008 redux," said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. "The fundamentals don't matter until they matter very much." Prices surged to a record $147.27 in Jul 2008 and fell to $32.40 in Dec 2008 as the recession worsened and demand waned. US crude oil stockpiles posted 9 weekly increases with inventories at 354.2 million barrels, the highest level since June 2009. Prices have established a floor of $75 and Venezuela seeks a price band between $80 and $100 a barrel, Venezuela's Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said. OPEC slashed output in Jan 2009 to prevent a supply glut, and left production quotas unchanged when ministers met on 17 Mar 2010.

- We've had a clear breakout in NYMEX crude futures since it burst through the $84 level recently, blowing past the $83.95 level that might have served as resistance if it had turned back then. Now we are on-trend to try for $90, the next potential resistance level which had served as past support for a brief period back in Sep 2008.

So far everyone is yelling "global economic recovery" and even NBER, the semi-official agency that calls the beginnings and endings of recessionary periods, has joined the chorus chiming in and announcing the end of the Great Recession. Far be it for me to argue with the trend, though the few still in the contrarian community are aware that the economic fundamentals are as rotten as they have ever been - or actually worsening and threatening to hit a Debt Wall in the future with interest rates rising off the lowest possible values of zero or nearly zero.

All this will take some time to play out however, since interest rate trends take years, even decades to develop. In the meantime, I am long - and going longer - on crude oil positions, including ETF's, ETN's and futures derivatives, and will ride the trend as far as it might go.

(2010-04-06 13:11:57 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Tuesday March 09, 2010

China crude oil imports exceed 50% of total consumption, hits energy security alert level

peakoil.com -> chinadaily.com.cn :

China's oil imports will continue to see solid growth this year, with more than half of the country's total oil consumption coming from abroad, industry insiders said. It is inevitable for the country - the world's second largest oil consumer - to see a robust increase of imports, as domestic production cannot keep up with rising demand. China's oil dependency reached alarming levels last year with imports accounting for 52% of total consumption, China Business News reported. Importing more than 50% is a globally recognized level for an energy security alert.

China's oil imports in 2010 are expected to grow 5% from a year earlier, and the proportion of imported oil consumed may further rise to 54% this year. China imported 204 million tons of oil last year [1495 million barrels, or 4.1 mbpd], while total production was 190 million tons [1393 million barrels, or 3.8 mbpd]. The Middle East, Africa and the Asia-Pacific are the three main regions that supply oil for China. According to a report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), 64.5% of China's oil consumption is likely to be met by imports in 2020. China's crude oil production may see a decline after 2020.

- The big question to be asked now is whether the proverbial rise of the Chinese consumer will survive a looming double dip recession in the rest of the developed world. Will China's internal demand pick up enough to keep China's GDP growth rates at 8-9% when the Western consumers crash and burn (again)? Maybe, maybe not. It depends on whether the Asian consumers have picked up enough momentum for the current trends like the China car sales jump, etc. to continue in a self-sustaining cycle.

(2010-03-09 21:21:02 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Tuesday February 02, 2010

Singapore to consider nuclear power to improve energy security

bloomberg.com :

Singapore should consider using nuclear power and depend less on foreign workers in its efforts to transform the economy in the next decade, a government-appointed panel said. The recommendations have been accepted by the government and will be addressed in the budget to be unveiled on 22 Feb 2010. Singapore is seeking ways to ensure its economy expands in a more sustained manner after three recessions in the past decade, with its most recent slump the deepest since independence in 1965. The panel announced 7 proposals to restructure the economy. They include making the city state a hub for global companies seeking to expand in Asia, improving energy security and being more flexible in land usage. The committee urged the government to study using nuclear energy as a future source of power and the import of coal and electricity. It also recommended the creation of a "waterfront city" on existing port facilities run by PSA International in the south of the island when the lease expires in 2027. The panel recommends that the government develop an "underground master plan" to create more space as there may be limits to how much land it can reclaim.

channelnewsasia.com :

The Economic Strategies Committee (ESC) on Monday [1 Feb 2010] gave extensive recommendations to ensure energy sustainability and the full optimisation of Singapore's land space, given the island-state's limited resources. Among the plans is a new waterfront city at Tanjong Pagar, currently a port area comprising Keppel and Pulau Brani. Besides land constraints, Singapore also faces energy resource constraints. The committee suggested that Singapore study the feasibility of using nuclear energy in the long term, an idea which Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in 2008 said he "hasn't ruled out". The ESC said the option could help meet base load electricity demand as well as Singapore's energy security in the long run. In the medium term, the committee suggested Singapore should explore coal and electricity imports to diversify its energy sources. Importing energy will also free up valuable land in the country.

- This is the clearest confirmation yet by the Singapore government on its plans for nuclear power, which I have been advocating since at least 2006 (see my feedback to the government during the National Climate Change Strategy consultation). Until this pronouncement, all prior communications had been vague, along the lines of "we are not ruling it out". Of course the "coffeeshop talk" folks would murmur that once the Singapore government even so much hints at any new initiative even in vague terms, it has already been decided upon and WILL be implemented rapidly and efficiently, without so much as a peep from the rest of the people. Perhaps. But I shall leave the political pontifications to those so inclined.

Myself, I am glad that the Singapore government has decided to take a bold move towards embracing nuclear energy. As I have been saying all along, and now as the government panel itself has also said, what we need is baseload power, and with current technology we have about two choices - nuclear and coal. What *is* a little unfortunate, though, from my point of view, is that the government seems to be choosing *both* nuclear *and* coal. Now I'm sure that as a Kyoto signatory, Singapore probably wouldn't be going out building conventional dirty coal power plants willy-nilly. Or at least, we environmental activists surely hope not. The hope is that they will at least try to adopt some form of clean coal system. And while I have some reservations (some rather big reservations) about clean coal, if it is at all technologically feasible, you can trust the Singapore government to try to pull it off. Well. Like they say : you win some, you lose some.

A mixed congratulations then to Singapore. +10 points for embracing nuclear power, -5 points for considering coal at the same time. To be fair, I have tracking both initiatives coming on the horizon, plus the one about the LNG terminal, so all this is hardly much of a surprise. So keep posted, as we shall track how the execution goes on these plans.

(2010-02-02 12:40:21 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

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