${log.root}/lowem.log
Inflation, Investing and Everything

All | Musings | Tech | Java | Biz | Energy | Env

Main | Next page »

Tuesday March 09, 2010

China crude oil imports exceed 50% of total consumption, hits energy security alert level

China's oil imports will continue to see solid growth this year, with more than half of the country's total oil consumption coming from abroad, industry insiders said. It is inevitable for the country - the world's second largest oil consumer - to see a robust increase of imports, as domestic production cannot keep up with rising demand. China's oil dependency reached alarming levels last year with imports accounting for 52% of total consumption, China Business News reported. Importing more than 50% is a globally recognized level for an energy security alert.

China's oil imports in 2010 are expected to grow 5% from a year earlier, and the proportion of imported oil consumed may further rise to 54% this year. China imported 204 million tons of oil last year [1495 million barrels, or 4.1 mbpd], while total production was 190 million tons [1393 million barrels, or 3.8 mbpd]. The Middle East, Africa and the Asia-Pacific are the three main regions that supply oil for China. According to a report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), 64.5% of China's oil consumption is likely to be met by imports in 2020. China's crude oil production may see a decline after 2020.

- The big question to be asked now is whether the proverbial rise of the Chinese consumer will survive a looming double dip recession in the rest of the developed world. Will China's internal demand pick up enough to keep China's GDP growth rates at 8-9% when the Western consumers crash and burn (again)? Maybe, maybe not. It depends on whether the Asian consumers have picked up enough momentum for the current trends like the China car sales jump, etc. to continue in a self-sustaining cycle.

(2010-03-09 21:21:02 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Tuesday February 02, 2010

Singapore to consider nuclear power to improve energy security

bloomberg.com :

Singapore should consider using nuclear power and depend less on foreign workers in its efforts to transform the economy in the next decade, a government-appointed panel said. The recommendations have been accepted by the government and will be addressed in the budget to be unveiled on 22 Feb 2010. Singapore is seeking ways to ensure its economy expands in a more sustained manner after three recessions in the past decade, with its most recent slump the deepest since independence in 1965. The panel announced 7 proposals to restructure the economy. They include making the city state a hub for global companies seeking to expand in Asia, improving energy security and being more flexible in land usage. The committee urged the government to study using nuclear energy as a future source of power and the import of coal and electricity. It also recommended the creation of a "waterfront city" on existing port facilities run by PSA International in the south of the island when the lease expires in 2027. The panel recommends that the government develop an "underground master plan" to create more space as there may be limits to how much land it can reclaim.

channelnewsasia.com :

The Economic Strategies Committee (ESC) on Monday [1 Feb 2010] gave extensive recommendations to ensure energy sustainability and the full optimisation of Singapore's land space, given the island-state's limited resources. Among the plans is a new waterfront city at Tanjong Pagar, currently a port area comprising Keppel and Pulau Brani. Besides land constraints, Singapore also faces energy resource constraints. The committee suggested that Singapore study the feasibility of using nuclear energy in the long term, an idea which Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in 2008 said he "hasn't ruled out". The ESC said the option could help meet base load electricity demand as well as Singapore's energy security in the long run. In the medium term, the committee suggested Singapore should explore coal and electricity imports to diversify its energy sources. Importing energy will also free up valuable land in the country.

- This is the clearest confirmation yet by the Singapore government on its plans for nuclear power, which I have been advocating since at least 2006 (see my feedback to the government during the National Climate Change Strategy consultation). Until this pronouncement, all prior communications had been vague, along the lines of "we are not ruling it out". Of course the "coffeeshop talk" folks would murmur that once the Singapore government even so much hints at any new initiative even in vague terms, it has already been decided upon and WILL be implemented rapidly and efficiently, without so much as a peep from the rest of the people. Perhaps. But I shall leave the political pontifications to those so inclined.

Myself, I am glad that the Singapore government has decided to take a bold move towards embracing nuclear energy. As I have been saying all along, and now as the government panel itself has also said, what we need is baseload power, and with current technology we have about two choices - nuclear and coal. What *is* a little unfortunate, though, from my point of view, is that the government seems to be choosing *both* nuclear *and* coal. Now I'm sure that as a Kyoto signatory, Singapore probably wouldn't be going out building conventional dirty coal power plants willy-nilly. Or at least, we environmental activists surely hope not. The hope is that they will at least try to adopt some form of clean coal system. And while I have some reservations (some rather big reservations) about clean coal, if it is at all technologically feasible, you can trust the Singapore government to try to pull it off. Well. Like they say : you win some, you lose some.

A mixed congratulations then to Singapore. +10 points for embracing nuclear power, -5 points for considering coal at the same time. To be fair, I have tracking both initiatives coming on the horizon, plus the one about the LNG terminal, so all this is hardly much of a surprise. So keep posted, as we shall track how the execution goes on these plans.

(2010-02-02 12:40:21 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Tuesday January 19, 2010

Toyota to double global production of hybrid vehicles by 2012

channelnewsasia.com :

Toyota plans to double its global production of hybrid vehicles in about two years, positioning such fuel-sipping cars as a core profit earner. The automaker recently notified parts suppliers that it intends to roll out about 800,000 hybrids domestically in 2010, with the figure to be raised to around 900,000 in 2011 and 1.1 million in 2012, the Nikkei reported. Toyota's 2009 hybrid vehicle output was estimated to be around 500,000.

Toyota also plans to sell an additional 10 new hybrid models from minivans, subcompacts to luxury cars within a few years, on top of its current lineups such as the 2010 Toyota Prius, Sai and Lexus HS250h. The world's biggest automaker now makes about 90% of its hybrid vehicles at home in Japan. In 2011, hybrids will likely account for about 30% of all vehicles that Toyota manufactures in Japan, up from the projected figure of about 20% for 2009, the Nikkei said. The petrol-electric Toyota Prius hybrid car was the best-selling car in Japan in 2009, becoming the first hybrid to top the annual rankings, with sales almost tripled from the previous year.

- In spite of the global recession, it looks like Toyota is on a roll with its hybrid line-up. And these plans are not new. The Asians including the Japanese and Chinese are reputed for long-term thinking. Back in 2005, Toyota announced plans to go to an all-hybrid vehicle model line-up. And this paragraph quotes from a 2006 entry : "Toyota Motor said that it would double the number of hybrid models it offers to 14 by the early years of the next decade as part of its effort to meet higher demand for fuel-efficient vehicles". I'll be looking out for Toyota to continue to execute on its plans to bring the next generation of lithium-ion powered hybrid, plug-in and EV technology to the rest of its line-up.

(2010-01-19 18:20:00 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Friday January 15, 2010

NYMEX crude oil prices drop below $79 as Euro falls against USD on Greece concerns

bloomberg.com :

The Euro declined the most in almost a month against the US dollar on concern Greece's struggles to reduce its budget deficit will damage confidence in the region. The EUR/USD forex exchange rate fell as much as 0.8%, the biggest decline since 17 Dec 2009. Oil prices fell for a fifth day, the longest losing streak in five weeks, leading declines in commodities prices. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's warning that no member nation can expect "special treatment" fueled concern Greece's debt won't be eligible as collateral at the central bank. Rating downgrades sparked a rout in Greece's bonds in Dec 2009 as the budget deficit headed for 12.7% of GDP, more than 4 times the European Union limit.

Feb 2010 NYMEX crude futures fell to $78.95. The S&P GSCI Index of commodities fell for a fifth day, the longest losing streak in a month. Corn declined 0.9% to $3.7775 a bushel in Chicago trading. Wheat and soybeans also declined. Copper fell 0.5 percent to $7,455.50 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, leading a drop in industrial metals.

- It looks like we could be headed for a slight pause in the commodities rally powered by crude oil and gold prices coming into the beginning of 2010, or at least a consolidation situation in the commodities markets before the next directional movement can be discerned. The threat of a China slowdown with the central bank starting to make noises about tightening credit and reining in the runaway property boom does not help the bullish case very much either. Hence I am now looking once again at support levels with that for crude oil prices being around the $75 level and for gold prices it is around the $1100 level, with the advice being to watch for either support holding or breaking down below these levels.

(2010-01-15 22:05:42 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Saturday December 19, 2009

2010 Mitsubishi i-MiEV to comprise first batch of 50 Singapore electric cars arriving in Sep 2010

channelnewsasia.com

Singapore will receive its first batch of electric vehicles (EVs) next year as part of a national EV test-bedding programme. The Energy Market Authority (EMA) said 50 Mitsubishi i-MiEV electric cars will make their way here from Sep 2010. EMA deputy CEO David Tan said the authority is now looking for companies to participate in the programme and be an early adopter of EVs in Singapore.

Mr Tan said a multi-agency EV Taskforce will also be rolling out a small network of charging stations. A competitive tender will be launched in 2010. On top of that, a study will be carried out to determine the number of EV charging stations and their specific locations. Most of the charging is expected to be done overnight in the car parks of the EV users' homes or offices. The deployment of these EV charging stations will be timed to coincide with the actual take-up of EVs under the testbedding programme for Singapore electric cars.

- A slight departure from the Renault-Nissan combo mentioned earlier, but nevertheless it is good to know that the first *real* electric cars are coming over to Singapore finally. Ok, let me define "real" here as an actual electric car you can look forward to buying from a showroom soon, something that is a mass production model, not a one-off thing, and not something so high-end that you get movie stars and government officials on some kind of a waiting list.

It's something that the "Average Family Man" might want to buy, and just as importantly is able to afford. Something from a well-known, trusted car-maker brand that would benefit from the same distribution, dealership and service network that would be required to support the entire lifecycle of the car, without you having to register your own one-man dealership to import *one* special electric car into the country (yes, I do know someone who almost had to do that). All the above, that to me, makes for "real". Now it may not be *your* definition, but it's just *my* definition :)

And finally, not to forget that in Singapore, over 80% of the population stays in high-rise apartment buildings, so having our folks trying to haul 100-feet electric power cords down from our homes to the carpark to plug into our EV's or plug-in hyrbids is pretty much out of the question. So we will also need a "real" EV charging network to match, and it's good to see that the Singapore government is working on that as well.

(2009-12-19 15:55:06 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Monday December 07, 2009

COSCO CEO Wei Jiafu advocates nuclear power for cargo ships

peakoil.com -> seatradeasia-online.com :

In an extraordinary question and answer session in Shanghai the boss of the world's largest shipping conglomerate has advocated the use of nuclear power onboard merchant ships. Outlining the container alliance CKYH's decision to push ahead with super slow steaming, COSCO CEO and President Capt Wei Jiafu said that the move was in part a green one. He then went on to say that he was in favour of using nuclear power onboard merchant ships as a further green initiative. 'As they are already onboard submarines, why not cargo ships?' he mused. Later he spoke to Seatrade Asia Online and revealed COSCO is in talks with the national nuclear authorities to develop nuclear powered ships.

- This is interesting from a peakoiler point of view. It was something that has been brought up time and again in peak oil discusions and every time the naysayers would pop up and say that it is too expensive, impractical and there would always be the nuclear waste issue. But now with the CEO of one of the world's largest shipping companies which operates the 6th largest cargo shipping fleet bringing this issue up and reportedly already in talks regarding development, this brings the issue from a theoretical exercise to something that may actually see implementation.

It would not be the first time that this concept has surfaced though. Back in the 1960's there was the NS Savannah, one of four nuclear-powered cargo ships ever built, all within the 1960's to 70's period. In the decades that followed, only navy nuclear power would see any progress in development, primarily with US aircraft carriers and submarines, many of whose reactors were supplied by a separate subsidiary of a company I used to work for. So now, with oil prices up again from unrealistic lows, renewable energy and alternative energy are apparently back in the limelight once again, and it might be refreshing to see the Chinese take a leading role in the area of marine green power.

(2009-12-07 12:56:33 SGT) [Energy] Permalink

Main | Next page »

Most popular blog postings on lowem.log :

1. 2010 Nissan Leaf electric car specifications : 107hp, 24KWh lithium-ion batteries, 100-mile range
2. 2010 Honda CR-Z hybrid, 2010 Honda Fit/Jazz hybrid models confirmed
3. 2010 Honda Civic Hybrid preliminary specifications released
4. Singapore SIBOR rate falls to 0.69% in Jan 2009, lowest since Apr 2004
5. How to insert currency exchange rates into Google Spreadsheets
6. Singapore : Nuclear power not ruled out
7. Live spot gold price quotes chart on COMEX
8. 2010 Toyota Prius specifications released : 50 mpg, 1.8L, 134hp, Ni-MH, solar roof option

Featured articles on lowem.log :

1. 2010 Honda Civic Hybrid preliminary specifications released
2. 2010 Honda CR-Z hybrid, 2010 Honda Fit/Jazz hybrid models confirmed
3. 2010 Toyota Prius specifications released : 50 mpg, 1.8L, 134hp, Ni-MH, solar roof option
4. Honda, GS Yuasa JV to make lithium-ion batteries for 2010/2011 Honda Civic Hybrid
5. New efficient nanotech materials may boost enhanced geothermal power systems
6. NYMEX crude oil recovers from $32.40 low after 2.2 mbpd OPEC production cut announced
7. Singapore property market recovery seen as private home sales surge 52% in Jul 2009
8. Singapore SIBOR rate falls to 0.69% in Jan 2009, lowest since Apr 2004

Custom Search